Bears up the ante

 World Markets  Comments Off
Jan 312011
 

Brazilian Bovespa:

Bovespa Daily Charts

The BRIC Index

BRIC Fund - Daily Charts

A reversal day in the S&P 500:

S&P500 - Daily Chart

Gold and Nifty

 Uncategorized  Comments Off
Jan 242011
 

Gold broke through a short-term trendline and has opened up potential for downsides. (If you see our last few posts on Gold, we have been anticipating this decline.)

Gold Daily Charts

If you are a wave fan, you would note that this decline is coming after a 5 wave advance and this decline below 1352 marks the beginning of a strong decline. We are expecting the shiny metal to find initial support around the June highs of 1265.

The Indian stock markets though had an advancing week, people have to pay attention to the range of last week.

Nifty Daily Charts

The whole of last week  markets meandered under the range of previous Friday's(the day it breached key support at 5690)  range!!! If this is not bearish consolidation, what is??

Jan 202011
 


In my interaction with CNBC TV-18 on 19th January, I did highlight that the Indian markets may have slipped into a bear market. Strangely(!) it did not find any recap in their website !

Regular readers of this blog would recall that I had highlighted  in my November post itself (now Password unlocked) that the Indian markets had peaked and a bearish phase was a distinct possibility.

Jan 132011
 

The first one is the heavy weight ONGC

ONGC Daily Charts

IMO, this is not a perfect H&S top, as the volumes have not been supportive of the dip below the neckline. Nevertheless,  due to its high weightage in Nifty and fact that the stock is clocking lower highs and lower lows, it deserves our close attention.

Next is the cement major, ACC.

ACC Daily Charts

A close below the 1000 level with expanding volumes would give the bears the upper hand in this sector.

The third one is the real estate major DLF.

DLF Daily Charts

The stock is hanging by a fingernail above its major support of 255. Although DLF did dip below that level on an intraday basis, it managed to close above that level and averted a major disaster here.

If any of these stocks close below the levels marked here, the bears will have more ammunition to launch their assault on the broader market.

Jan 102011
 

The bears have covered considerable ground in the first trading week of the new year. Indian markets are clearly the worst performer amongst its global peers. The grizzlies have managed to plough into the gains of the past 3 weeks and handed in a loss of 3.75% for the Nifty and 4% for the Sensex.

Nifty Weekly Charts

An important development has been in the price action of copper - an ominous dark cloud cover formation (If you are a P&F chartist, a high pole warning). Although a follow through sell off week is needed here before conclusions can be drawn about the extent of the damage, copper is deemed to have a doctoral degree due to its ability to pinpoint key market turns. Hence, this chart remains the key market to focus this week to gauge the health of the global equity indices.

Copper - DCC on weekly charts

Yet another market where bears have made serious inroads last week has been in the precious metals space. While Gold's stumble around the $1425 level for the third time may be obvious to many, Silver the key out performer in this printed run to prosperity, has logged some substantial loss.  A reversal signal on weekly charts, a "bearish engulfing" pattern is a high probable indication that the run here is coming to an end at least for the intermediate term, if not for the longer term.

Silver - Bearish reversal sign on weekly charts

 Posted by at 4:28 am

Watch Copper

 Commodities  Comments Off
Jan 062011
 

Copper:

Copper - Daily Chart

An evening star pattern is visible on copper's daily chart. While this is a high probability reversal signal, a close into the coloured region would add further weight to this reversal signal.

USD:

This currency basket clocked a wide ranged bar yesterday and is taking aim at the 200 DMA. With a micro double bottom in place, piercing through the much followed 200DMA is the likely scenario.

 Posted by at 3:39 am  Tagged with: