2014 January » Cash The Chaos

Recent trade ideas

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Jan 302014

Gold:

Were you able to capitilize on the recent wild moves in Gold? We did. Not only have we got a low risk entry point we have been able to make use of the wild gyrations of the last few days. Here is a screen shot of an update sent to those who purchased the Gold and Silver medium term view:

Gold Update

Gold corrected as expected from 1270's to 1248 and once again bounced from 1248 to 1270.

PNB:

Part of the trade idea was to go long on a just -OTM put. After the report was published, PNB's 560 put appreciated from 5 to 42, 580 put appreciated from 10 to 62 , 8 fold increase and 6 fold increase depending on which strike was taken.

Both these posts - PNB and precious metals have useful trend guidance that can come in handy for the slightly longer term trader (albeit at a higher risk level now). If you would like to know what are the decision points (targets, key levels, stop loss) and where these securities are headed, click the purchase button( click here for PNB and here for Gold and Silver key words -credit/debit cards and paypal accepted).

Outlook for Gold and Silver

Commodities Comments Off

Jan 052014

The weekly chart of Gold with its Elliott Wave labelling is shown below.

Gold is moving within a large complex 4th wave and the final 'Y' leg of the 4th wave may have just started.

Besides the June low of 1181, a couple of important Fibonacci support clusters are placed around 1180's. Also, on the day when Gold hit a low of 1186, a survey of futures traders who were bullish on Gold was a mere 5% - an extreme and market lows tend to occur around such sentiment extremes.

Therefore, the odds that Gold has seen an important low at the level of 1181 is quite high. Hence a short term trader may look to go long on Gold with a stop below $1180. Partial longs at current price and pullbacks around 1217-1210 to be used as further entry points. The wave Y is very likely to end close to the August high of Gold, roughly around 1425-30 and that will be the price objective of this trade set up.

Silver:

The technical structure of Silver is similar to that of Gold. Silver is moving within a large complex 4th wave and the final 'Y' leg of the 4th wave may have just started.

Silver is unlikely to drop below the low of $18.6 seen last week. Hence traders may go long with a stop below 18.6 with a price objective of $25.2. Use decline to $19.7 and $19.5 as entry points with a small entry at current price of $20.2.

PS: There are legitimate alternate Wave Counts for both Gold and Silver but the alternates also point to a short term rally. Mr Market will tell us if we need readjust our wave counts. As of now even the least bullish case, points to a rally of $1350-60 for Gold.

Legal Disclaimer: This post gives an idea of how a trader chooses low risk entry points for trading and hence what you see in this post is for educational purpose only. This is no solicitation to buy, sell or hold any securities. I’m not a registered investment advisor and I strongly urge you to consult one if you are going to act on the above idea. If you decide to take action on the above idea, you are agreeing that you take full responsibility for the profit or loss that you may sustain based on such decisions and agreeing to indemnify the author of the same. You may have seen me on TV suggesting successful trade ideas but remember trading is inherently risky and past performance is no guarantee of future outcome.

PS: This was a premium digital content and has been unlocked now.

PNB’s medium term outlook

Indian Market/Stocks Comments Off

Jan 052014

PNB has gained about 19% since the beginning of December. However, the rise from the September low seems to be just a corrective rise within a larger decline.

The monthly chart of PNB shown below sports a distinctive lower low and lower high pattern. From an Elliott Wave perspective, the decline from 2010 to 2013 September can be counted as waves 1 through 3.

On 2nd Jan the stock reached 654 and then fell sharply to register a bearish outside day. This level of 654 is a perfect 25% retracement of waves 1 through 3 which is a characteristic behavior of wave 4 after a strong wave 3.

On the daily time frame, the move since September is slow, choppy, overlapping, contained within parallel lines - once again a characteristic behavior of a corrective rally.

Now if we see PNB drop below 600, it is likely that the 5th wave down has started for PNB and a decline to a minimum of 400 is underway. The confidence in this wave count will increase if PNB closes below 558 and also breaks the parallel channel.

So, what would I do as a trader? IF and ONLY if 600 is violated, I would consider going short with 682 cash level as a stop. Ideally using some just out of the money put (should be liquid and have a sensible premium) as a trading vehicle. After, 558 is taken out, I would consider getting more aggressive and hold for the medium term target of 375.

If however 654 is taken out before 600, the broader theme of a 5th wave decline would still be valid but I will let the upward correction continue to about 680-721 before looking to go short. (I will email you all and update in this scenario). The bottom line - medium term outlook is bearish and a move below the September 2013 low seems likely.

Legal Disclaimer: This post gives an idea of how a trader chooses low risk entry points for trading and hence what you see in this post is for educational purpose only. This is no solicitation to buy or sell securities. I'm not a registered investment advisor and if you decide to take action on the above idea, you are agreeing that you take full responsibility for the profit or loss that you may sustain based on such decisions and agreeing to indemnify the author of the same. You may have seen me on TV suggesting successful trade ideas but remember trading is inherently risky and past performance is no guarantee of future outcome.

PS: This was a premium digital content and has been unlocked. The trade setup resulted in partial profit taking on 31st Jan and balance position was stopped at cost on 6th March 2014.