Nifty(5222.40): An erratic day that finally settled lower by little over 1%.
Nifty Daily Chart
If the top at 5630 is a significant top, the counter-trend top, i.e. B wave correction to the 2010-2011 decline, there are two ways this can play out.
1) Nifty blows through 5090-5077 area - if this scenario happens, we have a powerful wave on hand and Nifty could drop straight to 4950.
2) The current decline stops at above 5077 - then there is a bounce coming through that may take Nifty to 5495 to 5510. Post that a bigger decline begins. There is some support at 5139 and 200 DMA at 5165. Hence, be willing to extinguish some short positions closer to 5100 Nifty.
Will be closely monitoring the internals of the move if the second case pans out - it needs to be in 3 steps , else the B wave stands a chance of moving higher to 5900 (see earlier post ). As the structure unwinds, Ill update in plain english.
Apollo Tyres Long at 78, 3/4ths booked at 85 (I'm aware many did not get the SMS due to network Jam - this is for those who got)
Short Nifty Fut from 5450 spot, partially booked
Long Nifty March 5000 PE @32-33, partially booked @47-49
Long USDINR at 49.8 spot Tgt 52 stop 48.8
GMDC stopped out at 194.