Mar 302012

Nifty(5178): Nifty on expected lines went below the low of 5165. The bullish interpretation at this point is that the move from 5630 is a corrective decline and the correction got over at 5135. What is in favour of this? The intraday momentum has not been able to clock new lows when price has done so. However, on the higher time frame , daily charts, momentum is with price.

What's the bearish case - the market is in its third wave and the waves are sub-dividing in a 1, 2, 1, 2 fashion. INR is in favour of this scenario. Other currency cross-rates are favouring this outcome. China as pointed is bound for a big big low.

So we need to see Nifty stay below 5400 on the counter trend bounce. Quite possible it might not even cross 5320-5340. Today, being the end of a quarter - we might see some window dressing by FM's

The chart below shows the above scenario.

Nifty intra day chart

 Posted by at 8:59 am

  8 Responses to “Technicals 30th March”

  1. Do you think there is a higher probability of a bounce from yesterdays closing levels rather than Nifty going to 5076 kind of levels and then bouncing or the third scenario where it pierces through 5076?Also INR-CHF is almost touching 57.

    • CHFINR will not impact stocks directly – it is a clue for the discerning eye. When USDINR moves to 52.2 (even intra) that will be the flash point. Day to day fluctuations are tougher to get it right. The probability that markets will stay under 5400 seems very bright.


  2. hai jai
    can i buy SUZLON and sesagoa

  3. Sir

    Nifty trading @ 5358. Should we initiate a short on Nifty..

    • Dear Prateek,

      The potential for 5750 or 5820 is likely if markets exceed 5400 spot. So watching closely. The structure of Euro is pointing to short term upside potential and delaying the bigger decline.

  4. The upside in in the money call options is way less compared to the downside in out of the money put options.This was happening last month also.Why do you think this is happening?

  5. Whats your take on the Nifty?Do you think it can still go either ways from the current levels.

  6. Hi Jai

    Nifty reversed after filling the gap which it left from the last time. What is the upside level upto which you would try to short it.

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