Nifty(5322): Nifty's struggle and inability to cross 5385-5400 resistance is the first sign of trouble. If Nifty closes below 5260 that will be sign of more trouble brewing. Going forward, the most important data points for us are going to come from currency charts. If INR prints 52.2, it will be the ultimate confirmation for us that the rally from Dec 2011 is over and the path to a new low below 4530 is underway.
The Euro seems to be forming a head and shoulder consolidation pattern. A break below 1.30-1.2975 would be additional bearish clue for us.