Well I had a nice holiday, hope you all did too.
Nifty(4866): Most of the BRIC markets have had a nice start to 2012 and India is up a tidy 4.5%. So, many of you might want to know if things have turned a corner. Here is my prop indicator which signalled the start of a bearish phase for India in November 2010:
- India Barometer
As can be seen from the chart above, the indicator is continuing to clock lower lows and is accelerating lower. The best the bulls could hope for is that, this indicator this time is going to be concurrent rather than lead the market.
The pattern on Nifty still resembles a 5 wave down move followed by a 3 wave correction. This is still a bearish configuration. A drop to 4800-4775 will be a confirmation of this bearish set up.
Nifty Daily Charts
So at 4800-4775 , we will look for shorting opportunity. Frontline banks are likely to come under pressure. Support for Nifty 4800 and Resistance kicks in at 4920-4950.
19 Responses to “Technicals for Jan 16th 2012”
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Jai – WELCOME back. Happy New Year. We all have been missing you 😉
Thanks for the updates.
Vivek
Thanks Vivek. Happy New year to you too.
Jai,
Thanks. Good to hear that you enjoyed your break.
Any thoughts on what is happening with Indusind Bank ? Unfortunately have ended up n the wrong side of the trade. Do you see the trend having changed ?
Regards
Hi Rut,
Indusind at worst should have closed at 240-50. It bounced twice from 220.
Jai do you think the bounce from 4530 has reached its upside target and the next leg down is round the corner.If yes what kind of downward target can we expect in the next 8 sessions till expiry.The euro is also well below the level of 1.28 which you had mentioned earlier,will that also impact the markets soon
Regarding Nifty – read today’s note – targets will provide once the breach is confirmed. Euro 1.2588 minor support will stay ranged 1.2588-1.29 for a while before larger trend draws it to 1.18 or lower. Below 1.2588 its a free fall.
How many more sessions do you think before it breaches 4775-4800?
Hi Sri,
I do not know – time is a very difficult component to analyse
jai
welcome back to the daily grind, your views on open position indus ind? i am still holding the position, kindly also let me know your views on L T i am average short around 1070.00, and hero motor also as i have reloaded around 1900.00
regards
shabbir
Hi Shabbir,
LT shud top this week, looking at 1225 ball park. I think 830 is still on cards if not more. Hero take some part profits, may do 1850 and then go to sub 1600.
Dear Jai,
Do you think Indusind is a sell at 292, as it has gone there thrice and come down to 220 levels.
Ajay
Ajay,
Not ideal set up anymore. Will see.
Jai,
I have a feeling that most of us here have not had a particularly good holiday.
That is the problem with addiction. Not happy till one gets the daily fix.
So happy now. 😛
Welcome back. 🙂
Cheers.
Thanks Agile.
Dear Jai
Any views of EurInr and usdinr. We have corrected fair bit from the highs of 54.3 and seeing some consolidation in the 51.5 range. Euro has also corrected a fair bit. Any levels from where we can short the euro once again.
Prateek
Dear Prateek,
Yes 51.5 is an important support. Can bounce from here, watching today’s close on INR cross rates.
Jai,
Now that you are well and truely on….Some more that I had been wanting to ask :
1. Do you think Gold did a double bottom at $ 1525 ?
2. I remember you had said that IT is in te last up wave. Have the down sides been opened up yet ?
3. A bit more colour on the banking sector please. Does SBI / ICICI Bank seem like a short ?
Regards
Gold no. ICICI is on ideal level, awaiting a reversal. Yes CNX IT has rolled over.
Hi Jai,
Welcome back and wishing you a wonderful year ahead. Silver sl has been hit. Any views on how to play this going forward
Regards