Oct 032011

Just a quick chart check.

Nifty - Daily chart

If the sub-divisions marked are correct, we should see 4750-20 get breached soon, may be as early as this week. For medium to long-term please check the September and August post.

  72 Responses to “Nifty – Quick post”

  1. Thamks mate ….

  2. very informative sir

  3. thz a lot….waiting to grab

  4. Hi, Jai, you are great so far, but I think this time you are wrong. Nifty not going to break 4750-20 in a hurry, you see within this week Nifty rally towards 5000-5050 .

    • Hi Azad,

      Thanks. I do not mind being wrong at all, in fact the best lessons are learnt when one is wrong. The fear of being wrong will not stop me from pulling the trigger – money management techniques are in place, and that will boot me out of the system when I’m wrong.

      All the best,

  5. Ya Jai, I am really believe that you are one of the best technical analysts covering Indian markets today, but I am a trader , I trade day in day out in this market and I see sometime our market not behave like other markets in the world, and after today trading I find that Nifty regularly geting support near 4820-4825 level, please check this.

  6. Hi Jai,

    Thanks a lot for posting your recent views on Nifty. Like many others, I also await your views to be able to trade better.

    What are your thoughts on Silver – is it also showing as much weakness as equities worldwide or it could be worth taking a short term long call on the same?

    Also, hope you’re well now! 🙂

    Best Regards,

  7. Azad says:
    October 3, 2011 at 1:35 pm
    Hi, Jai, you are great so far, but I think this time you are wrong. Nifty not going to break 4750-20 in a hurry, you see within this week Nifty rally towards 5000
    Mr azad first of all no 1 need urs comment this is jai bala blog and only jai give his best information reg mkt and with his best experience he give his view .. i dont kow u how big u r and how much u earn from this mkt and u have no comparison with sir jai bala. v all r good to watch the market and every 1 knw that mkt is taking support at 4808 and 4820 as its a wk chart 200 ema. i really respect the jai sir view and i am totally agree with jai bala sir ..1 more this for me Azad the big difference between u and jai sir is cnbc and other tv channel call jai sir to give this view on mkt not call u to give urs view this is open blog so any 1 can wright ,i love to watch nifty going towards 4700 and more down to make u feel wrong mr Azad .
    sorry for this but this is true

    • Mr Hemen, first of all you shut your mouth, you have not even courage to post your real name.I am here posting my personal opinion and Jai give his answer, who the hell you are coming from middle of nowhere and display your lower standard.

      • Azad,

        I love to play a small wager/bet with my friends. When I lose that bet I take them out for a beer.

        I think the next call for drinks is on you. Are you going to invite us all. 😉

      • Hemen, Azad,

        Please, we are all mature adults, hope I’m right – its after all opinions. All of us are entitled to one. Let us argue but let us keep it civil.

    • Hello Mr. Hemen, where are you ? you try to be too smart and predicting that Nifty going down below 4700, when I say that Nifty not break 4750-20 in a hurry then you jump with me, now why you hiding your face, people like you always suffer and never made any money in mkt because you blindly follow some guru and do what they say.

  8. To all followers of Jai’s views, Jai does not cover only the Indian Markets. His views on the world markets, commodities, crude as well as global currencies are a treat to look forward to and are even better (if that is possible).

  9. hi jai,
    i really love the reply you gave to azad……. “Thanks. I do not mind being wrong at all, in fact the best lessons are learnt when one is wrong” hatsoff to your reply………….. this one quality differentiates top 1 % from the rest ……………. but it seems you are being proved right…… nifty most likely to crack 4700 this week ………. the way the things are………………..

  10. Jai,

    Made a few good bucks on the last fall in Gold. Do your views on Gold to 1480 still stand ?


  11. Great Job Jai….nifty futures touched 4725 today. Where do you think is the next support for nifty.. as per my calculations the next major support for nifty comes at around 4563 levels. would love to hear your view on the same.. Nifty has already reached your target for the week, can we expect some pullback in the coming days

  12. Wow Excellent call Jai !! liked your blog but i had noticed u r not updating quite often …. What happen to your poll for which you had promised to provide Technical support in india.


  13. Jai (Ganesh) Bala…..Jai (Ganesh) Bala……Jai (Ganesh) Bala……….Deva……..

    Kudos……….I repeat my earlier comment………HE is not a demi-god, but GOD in our own sense…..

    Someone who could predict the happening of Tuesday afternoon on Monday early morning……..Deva!!!

    Congrats……I really don’t know about earnings from these predictions, as to how many people can earn effectively…..however,.just reading your post, and seeing the market march in the given direction….is awesome……

    Be it about Nifty…. Dollar Index, INR, DAX, CAC, S&P, what have you…………Great going….keep it up and please do not get upset by the comments posted by others….we desparately look forward to your views & inputs……..please continue the good work……..and be as you are always…….Damn good….


  14. Hi Jai,

    In one of the posts, you said, “….money management techniques are in place, and that will boot me out of the system when I’m wrong.”

    My question is – Given the volatility in Nifty these days, is it happening that one gets booted out on both sides every now and then? If so, how does one trade?

    • Hi Amod,

      Honestly, I have not found the market to be that treacherous. Sure stops have got hit, but not whipsaws. Here is a rough guide I try to adopt, closer to the start of a series use options and at or after middle of series use futures. (Ex) Since I’m bearish on LT, 1200 puts were available at 10 at the start of Oct series, when it hit 1300 it went to 22+, it was a chance to book out on partial profits? Now even if it goes to zero, the choppiness in the stock leaves me unaffected. Similarly Nifty 4500 puts went from 32 to 100+. This is one way to take fixed risks and be shielded from volatility.

      Hope that helps.

      All the best,

  15. Dear Jai,

    Greeting of the day.

    I m ur new Fan cum follower since last 7 days. I am just 24yr old and start trading just month ago. My portfolio is of 30000 rs. Kindly suggest me wht should my strategy to trade to get some profit without doing huge loss.

    Waiting for ur reply.


  16. I think that’s a very good question Amod…

  17. Congrats Jai
    U were bang on today. only worry is tomorrow morning DOW went up 153 points in last 30 mins of trade. Do u think we will recover. I am heavily short and I need the mkt to go down. 🙂

  18. hi jai,

    i am keen to listen to ur money management techniques….. say we start with 1lac capital…. at what % loss do u quit trading for the month….. ?? and do u quit at all?? in most of the money management books its written that 2% per trade and 6% ( 3 losing trades in a row) one needs to quit for the month.. do u concur with these views?


  19. Hi jai,
    two lines on gold by you yesterday on someones specific query and slot machine started ringing for me ..i remember you told me it is very difficult to make money on somebodys reccom.on a sustainable basis..beleive me with u it is working for us(either way saving & making)..still remember ur call to stay away frm sbi as the structure got weak on a fall below 1940..as always jiyo!

  20. Jai,

    Saw ur comments on CNBC today. Thanks.

    I am running short on TCS. Do u see a break down coming up in IT or is there more to bounce ?


  21. hello sir
    hope you are doing good.waiting for your advisory service.as you said its taking time no problem with that

  22. Hi Bala,

    Tracking your posts & comments with intense admiration. Also, could you suggest what is up with CRISIL, since it has closed below 790, is that a major crack. I already hold about 100 @ 820. Is that a cause for worry or can i add some more to average.Thanks… Nikhil

    • Hi Nikhil,

      It does look like it has had a reversal. Close below 760 would be quite convincing. So you might want to use that as a stop if you can afford it.

      All the best,

  23. Hi Jai,

    All your views and directions can be of immense use to all of us if you can start your advisory service and provide your perfect calls in a timely manner to us…. ASAP:)

    Waiting for your response on this…. fingers crossed.


  24. hi jai…

    pls start your advisory service …

  25. hi jai,

    the no of visitors are increasing day by day…….. we are all waiting for ur products………
    i am keen to listen to ur money management techniques….. say we start with 1lac capital…. at what % loss do u quit trading for the month….. ?? and do u quit at all?? in most of the money management books its written that 2% per trade and 6% ( 3 losing trades in a row) one needs to quit for the month.. do u concur with these views?


    • Hi Ananth,

      Yes you have to quit at a point – I treat these techniques as guidelines rather than rules but one must quit at a point where you would be able to come back and fight another day.


      • Very well said Jai.

        If I may:
        The salient point to take away from this is not the percentage or the amount of the loss but what one is comfortable with and leaves enough in terms of mental strength, mental stability and financial strength to be able to come back and trade another day/another week/another month. And believe me, it is different for each one of us and again within us, different from time to time.

        Cheers and Fruitful Trading…:)

  26. hello sir
    truly important management technique which you have explained

  27. hi jai,

    if u quantify the level at which one has to quit it would be helpful for us….. putting exactly after losing how much capital % u quit for the month or for the week??


    • Hi Ananth,
      See Agile traders comment. He has said it perfectly. BTW, for the paid products, i’ve created a sign up page, please check.

  28. Hi Jai ,
    I have been tracking your reco in cnbc and on this blog. Thanks for all the comments. I was long LT and based on your comments on cnbc I closed the trade. Looking at today’s trade do you still hold the view (target as 1000). Looking at the tech indicator like RSI and stochastics,Is LT not oversold ?

    • Hi Nithin,
      Yes, you must have known by now that I do not change my opinion so quickly.

      All the best,

  29. Hi Jai,
    I am clueless about this sucker’s rally going around the world. But i noted that our market is turning out to be relative underperformer from relative outperformer may be due to domestic bad news around. it will be help if you can enlighten us on what are your chart prediction and targets.

    TCS faces resistance on 1075 levels which it have tested 4-5 times and it never breaks down but as i heard you on CNBC where u was giving targets of 690 on TCS and 4800 CNXIT. But for that we really need a breakdown in IT which is absent from last 40 days (approx) CNXIT is relatively stable from last due to some optimisim on margin expansion based on RS depreciation but it dont make sense as most of dollars are hedged, short term gains cant be counted for long term bad news around. but still its performing pretty stable and thats what is supporting nifty from a breakdown.

    Please update on CNXIT and BANKNIFTY too what are techinical charts of these looking like.


    • Hi Pawan,

      The fact that you are taking it as a sucker’s rally is itself good. Probably the results season might give the kicker for CNXIT to drop. Keep risk management measures in place. Repeat, that TCS has to drop to 800 odds atleast, ideally 690 – that is my reading of the charts.

      All the best,

  30. Hi Jai,

    Hope you have fully recovered from the flu by now.
    Any comments on where the nifty headed in this upmove.


    • Hi Ajay,

      I think Nifty has limited upside. Doubt if it would cross 5k. Not that it cannot, but I have serious doubts.

  31. Jai,

    Any thoughts on L&T. Have been short for some time in the 1350 range. Do you see it time to throw in the towel ?


    • Rut,

      It is likely to irritate more by time rather than by price. If I had to get technical the decline from 1723 to 1300 was a wave 3 of a particular degree and its working its fourth. Corrections are tough to predict but I guess it may not exceed 1462. 1420 zone itself should be exerting pressure. Unless it turns sharply down here, it might work some time here and irritate the shorters.

      all the best,

  32. Hi Jai,

    How do we read the recent rally from EW perspective. Any clues that can be shared?


    • hi Rishabh,

      With some small adjustments, the same count holds good, check Oct 3rd quick post on Nifty (clue expanded flat). Alternately, the red 3 ended at 4728 and markets are in the 4th. Tomorrow probably will clue us in.


  33. Jai Bala,

    I really want to ask these questions for long time.

    1. How many years it took you to be confident about trading?
    2. How much importance you give to elliott wave analysis in your trading? (elliott wave literature changed my views on many things but I never used elliott wave principle though they are unfolding consistently.)
    3. If you were asked to define stock market how you define it?

    Waiting for your reply


    • Hi Kishan,

      1) If you go through 1 complete cycle (Bull market and a bear market) relatively unscathed – you become confident about trading.
      2) Honestly, I have managed to do without EW for 3/4ths of my trading career. IMO, Waves should be used in conjunction with other techniques.
      3) Stock market is a place where people with money get experience and people with experience get the money 😀 (Borrowed words)


      • My intention in asking those questions to understand how you go about things. so that I can learn from it. but I think you never let any one to know your edge. Do you? 😀


  34. Maybe after a few years Jai will write a book about the different methods he has used from time to time and how these have evolved (for him) over time, then we will know. 🙂

    Till then win some lose some.

    Cheers and Happy Learning. 🙂

  35. […] what I had projected on Oct 3rd is still a possible count as long the Nifty stays below 5170. The volume footprint tells us that if […]

  36. Hi
    Guess some of the levels you mentioned like LT 1420, nifty 5000 are crossed and on closing basis.At one level it is tempting to think that we are getting better level to short more or should we actually look at the assumptions of fall and 4720 not holding.Like the other reader had mentioned it looks like a suckers rally but could it end up sucking us too much ?

  37. Hi Jai,

    There seems to be something amiss……….while the rally today is understandable, however, a few things are totally out of sync, which I am unable to comprehend….these are w.r.t the OI in major indices as per below:

    – Nifty OI actually increased, instead of coming down (was it on the long side all along? even if so, there should have been some reduction due to such huge rally in Nifty, if not, there seems to be a big surprise hidden)?

    – Infosys CE2300: Holding the biggest OI……even after being 16% from the strike price……this is not understandable

    – ALL, I repeat, ALL TCS calls have added OI, instead of covering

    While my knowledge of OI is only of a laymen, however, If one was to take these numbers as they are, this would mean a big slump is on our way??

    I realise you would be very busy, however, can you kindly throw some light??

    Thanks in advance,


  38. hi ajay ,

    i am also a layman while interpreting OI. i want to ask/ share one thing… say nifty has OI of x shares..( let us assume that it is on the short side) now say if 3x shares on long side were added then net would be 2x shares on the long side..which obviously will increase OI…….. i also want jai to throw some light……
    infy 2300 call having highest OI… if some people suppose had bet big on positive results obviously HNI s way would be to sell puts………….. comments welcome


  39. Hi Jai,

    GIven the way the market has pull backed in the last few sessions do you think anything has changed technically or your prediction of the breach of 4720-4750 on the Nifty is on the cards and if yes when.

    • Hi Sri,

      We did breach 4750 and made a low of 4728, and on the sensex markets hit a new low for the year though just by 20 points. Having said that, due to the recent rally I have not changed my bearish stance for the medium term.

      Good trading to you,

      • In that case what is the probability of the Nifty breaching 4728 in this expiry

        • Hi Sri,

          From your Q, I assume you are holding some october expiring options. Otherwise it should not matter, one can always roll forward futures position. I will assume it is not coming in this expiry and be prepared. I’m sensing we will get clues to what the market is going to do either today or by Monday.

          All the best,

  40. Dear Jai,

    What is your opinion on the cost averaging as a money management technique.
    Pl give your comments.


    • Hi Ajay,

      I normally do not like doing that but some people do that. I would rather pyramid a position that is winning rather than average a loser.

      All the best,

  41. Dear Jai,
    Do you think the nifty has reversed the trend after closing at 5077


  42. Dear Jai,

    I am not able to see the post ‘India pre mkt 14 Oct’. Is this post for the paid members only?


  43. Sad to see this Blog being reduced to nothing but “Premium Content” site.

    Essential meaning of Blog is destroyed by such commercialization. Nevertheless Jai enjoyed reading the content here.


    • Dear Aditya,

      You are mistaken. There will be free posts. If you would recall, when it was completely free, I never used to update the blog everyday. It was always when there was any significant market action.


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