Feb 142013

Cable (GBP/USD) has been moving in a triangle pattern since 2009 and yesterday's sharp and convincing dip below 1.5630 marked the end of this triangle formation.

Pound sterling breaks out of a 4 year triangle

Cable's monthly chart (above) with its Elliott Wave count shows that the currency is embarking on its 5th wave of decline. The target for this breakout is mammoth - Over the next 12-24 months we are very likely to see a level of 1.345 at the very least but will not be surprised if we see a level of 1.165.

When such a large text book pattern comes to fruition, clearly there will be some economic/fundamental tail wind supporting it. We are not going to bother ourselves with those and will leave it to the economists to decode that for us. However, we need to be aware  that such a large movement in a major currency is unlikely to occur in isolation. The Dollar will very likely strengthen against other major currencies. This is terrific news for Dollar Index bulls and bad news for many risk assets including precious metals and equities that rely on weak dollar forever.

Disclosure: I'm short sterling since January 2013 from 1.6113.