Nov 302011

Nifty(4805.10): Did the counter trend rally end at 4866? Here is the wave count on the hourly chart.

Nifty - Intraday chart

Nifty has failed to cross last week’s high of 4873. Unless, there is another three wave correction (see chart), we may have to be open to the prospect that the upward correction was too weak and ended at 4866. If the market is undergoing a double three correction, Nifty should not drop below 4725. If it does, this would be another indication that wave red 4 ended at 4866. So today’s intraday moves are going to be important and as long as Nifty stays below 4866 we will have to keep the option that red wave 5 has started a possibility. Once 4866 is crossed, Nifty is potentially on the path outlined( a double three) on the chart and the resistance at 4905-30 and 4980 would be the target zone for the rollover.

Open positions:

Silver: Short @$34.2 stop $33.5 partially booked at $31.4

Apollo Tyres: Long @64 stop 59 Tgt 71

Heromotors: Short @2025 sl 2130 Tgt 1900 (keep it flexible, will alert if the position needs to closed)

 Posted by at 3:09 am

  27 Responses to “Technicals 30th Nov 2011”

  1. Hi Jai,

    What’s your take on Crude? I’m carrying some shorts @ $99.20. You think it has potential to come to $98 levels or below that any sooner?

    Thanks & Regards,

    • I just had a look at the hourly chart, the low of 94.99 made on 25th Nov seems to be a B wave of an expanded flat. In simple words, market is itching to go lower than that. If this is true, the Dec contracts will not cross 100.76. Hope that helps.


  2. Hi Jai,

    I just want to ask this to get better at the basics. I notice Auto shares like Heromoto, Bajajauto – their CMP is almost 10 times their Book Value. Whereas Metal shares (Hindalco, Tata Steel) – their CMP is around .77 times their Book Value. Even Titan being such a strong company is trading below its Book Value.

    Basically I want to understand why is this discrepancy there. Is it first there because – different sectors have different way to calculate the same, etc. Also, can we seriously think of buying good scripts for long term if they’re trading below their Book Value?

    Also, how much weightage shall be given to this parameter as such for good scripts for long term buying decisions.

    Thanks & Regards,

    • Hi Parag,
      I’m not qualified to answer that. I even do not know if it matters to the market price at all. As far as I’m concerned, the only reason to buy a stock is because it is going up, if that is not happening, no other reason is good enough.


  3. Dear Jai,

    No body replied on your wave count as still lot of confusion over EW persists as it throws endless possibities….. if possible for u only if ……. can u post educational material on the subject on weekends or as may suit you 🙂


    • The idea of posting the morning notes is partially towards that end. Will consider what you have said.

      The error that I had planted was that, I made red wave 4 overlap into red 1. No one complained 🙂

  4. Hi Jai,

    What do you think will be the impact if RBI starts rate cuts in December 2011? Also do you look at options data on NIFTY at all?


    • I do look at options data but I use it only as an supplemental tool.

      RBI – let us see where we are in trend at that point. As I see it now, it will have temporary effect, if at all.


  5. Jai,

    As u know, u have been generally right in the direction of the market. However, we haven’t been able to take action on the Nifty because there has been no call. Also, ur daily commentary doesn’t make it clear in terms of what action can be initiated. Can I suggest that you let know a Nifty call on atleast a weekly basis. Thiis will help.


    • I agree, a specific pointed call for risky traders at least makes more sense to me! (I count myself as a risky trader :-)) Thx.

    • Hi Amrish,
      I think we should not fix any regular intervals for market to give us an opportunity. We will be forcing a trade. If you go back and read the morning notes, I think I have been fairly clear when you have to initiate a trade set up – highlighting in bold. That way everyone is prepared to for a setup as things are about to happen. That was how we got short around 5300 last time right? Happy to sort any ambiguity though.

  6. hi jai,
    ru revising stop loss for HH ?

    • Not at present. As highlighted on chart couple of days back, Hero seems like it has turned for the medium term.

  7. Hi Jai,
    Do u think people who shorted hero motor@ 2025 should add to their positions at this level or exit?


  8. Jai,

    Any thoughts on Infosys ?


  9. Jai,

    How is TCS looking at current levels. It seems to be outperforming the IT lot. Thx

  10. hi jai,
    any views or calls on shorting TCS and wipro both of them have come up a bit, or for now going slow is the mantra, one more advice i was able to buy apollo tyres @ 66.00 is it advisable to cover now and then again wait for it come down to 64.00 levels to buy

  11. Hi Jai

    China has cut CRR after the Indian markets closed. What effect will it have on stocks, commodities particularly gold and silver. Thanks

  12. Silver shooting up after the fed press release…time to go long??

  13. jai
    checked in to know your comments on my earlier query, saw the europe and dow futures all up around + 3% on the announcment of easing by central banks, your views on it,

Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.