The Nifty has been in the range of 5600 to 5400 for the sixth week and has kept everyone guessing as to which way the range would resolve. As a good trader, one needs constantly play devil’s advocate to your own views. So, here are the charts that present both the bullish and the bearish views.
If you are a bull:
Nifty - Daily Charts - as the bulls would like to read
The above Elliot wave count assumes that the November high was only a portion of a larger bull run and further gains are yet to follow. The violet wave 1 ended at the November highs and the subsequent decline into the January lows of 5177 completed the corrective wave violet 2 (which sub divided as a zig-zag red ABC). This would mean that the move to the May high was wave 1 green (impulsive) and is part of the powerful wave 3 violet which is likely to reach levels way beyond the all time highs.
Line in sand – If Nifty dips below 5320 it would weaken the bullish case though only a breach of 5177 would completely negate this option.
What’s in favour? – Despite the global and regional weakness, India has been holding up well in the last few days.
What’s against? – Reliance and ONGC ,the two heavy weights, are showing weakness. A big negative pattern is under construction in ONGC. The assumed wave count to the May highs is a truncation – which normally does not help the case. The blue dotted trend-line shown is also likely to place a lid on the upward move.
If you are a bear:
Nifty - Daily Chart - as the bears would like to read
The bearish case has multiple options and I have taken the least bearish option. If we assume the November high was the end of violet wave 1, the decline into the January lows was only part of a larger correction Violet A, that sub-divided into red ABC. The rise into May high is assumed as corrective in nature, Violet B (which again sub-divided as blue ABC). The ongoing move from the May high is part of the Violet C wave decline which is expected to sub divide in to 5 waves. Of this 5 waves we have probably completed the first wave of the decline (blue 1 of Purple C) and we are the beginning of a powerful wave 3 (blue 3 of purple C) that would take market below 5000 (black arrows) or the corrective wave 2 is yet to complete(blue dotted path) before the powerful blue 3 of purple C takes Nifty well below 5000.
Line in sand – A move above 5650 would weaken the bearish case though only a breach of 5944 would force us to suspend the bearish bets.
What’s in favour? – Exactly what is against the bullish case favours this – ONGC and Reliance. Also, the Dollar Index seems set for a powerful move that is likely to unleash a destructive move on most risk assets across the globe.
What is against? – Nifty has not managed to consolidate on the advantage of taking out the March lows and move briskly below the January lows.
PS: If you would like to know which side i’m leaning – i’ve been on the bearish side since November and I continue to do so.