About

 

My name is Jai Bala and in this blog you will find my view on financial markets and trading from a chartist's perspective. Im a trader & market technician (MSTA, CFTe) and a very large part of my market knowledge was gained through trading for a living . I have been investing in the markets since 1994, took up trading as a full time pursuit in 2002 and went on to manage portfolios of high-net individuals. I have been a specialist technical analysis consultant to a multi-billion dollar private fund. Between Jul 2008- Jan 2010, I lead the technical strategy for the instituitional broking arm of Reliance Capital, advising hedge funds and other instituitional clients. My past television appearances include Bloomberg, CNBC, NDTV Profit and ET Now.

Cyclical Bull Market -Apr 2009

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XGviPFbyGDQ

I'll be covering the Indian markets mainly but will also touch upon other markets including the world indices, commodities, currencies and bonds. Within the Indian markets, my posts will focus on the Nifty index and the equities segment of the market.

Through this blog I hope to keep in touch with my friends in the trading community. At the same time, writing and collecting my thoughts helps me stay disciplined and this blog is aimed towards that end.

 Posted by at 9:47 pm

  38 Responses to “About”

  1. Hi Bala

    I know this is going back to 2008, we spoke when you were residing in South London with your wife. I know off late you have moved to Singapore but I do get to watch you of the Financial channels when I’m visiting my parents in Mumbai/India. You probably charge for these kind of analysis of shares quoted on the National Stock Exchange Mumbai/India. The trend on ICICI Bank/Axis Bank has been down since it changed direction in November 2010 – risk off as EURUSD started to weaken. For the past approx. 2 weeks ICICI Bank/Axis Bank are forming a sideways pattern on the daily chart. In your opinion is this sideways pattern a continuation of the downtrend of a change in the direction of the trend. I value your opinion because I believe you are an extremely well informed person so do let me know at your earliest.

    Thanx

    • Hi Husein,
      Long time 🙂
      In my opinion the banking stocks are still in a downtrend. The banking index is still clocking lower lows and lower highs which is the hallmark of bearishness. Off the 2 stocks you have mentioned, ICICI would be a better bet to
      TRADE
      if you are trying to catch the counter-trend move. This sector could go down even further, though its oversold – that’s the risk of going against the trend.

      Hope it helps.

  2. Hi jai: am a keen follower of your’s. a couple of days back you had in cnbc tv 18 mentioned about an option startegy @ 5700 that could potentialy deliver unlimited return. can you explain your wiser thoughts on this yet again pl.

    best wishes. sridhar. v, chandigarh

    • Hi Sridhar,

      Please note this not an investment advice. The strategy I spoke about on TV – since Im expecting the market to decline below the lows of 5177 in March, buying 5000 March puts at Rs 19 offers unlimited upside potential with a risk of Rs 19 only. If anyone were to buy these contracts, the maximum loss would be Rs 19 *50 (lot size) and the gain potential is unlimited, IF THE MARKET behaves as anticipated.

      Hope that helps.

      Good trading,
      Jai

  3. hi Bala,
    Keenly track yr views on CNBC.
    Just wanted to drop a line saying thank you for the note you put up wrt disasters and the charts. I was very keen to understand what the impacts of these disasters are. Now I know. 🙂
    Thank you again.

  4. Jai Bala , I want to know more about your services .Looks like presently your web site
    http://www.cashthechaos.com/contact.html have error . Please send your contact number or contact me. Thanks !

    • Hi Prashant,

      The services that you see there were offered until 2008, before I joined Reliance Equities . I no longer offer any of the services as I do not want anything else to distract me from trading my own account. Through my blog I offer some of my market thoughts which could aid others arrive at their own well-judged investment/trading decision , helps me condense my thoughts and stay disciplined. So what you read in this blog, are thoughts of a professional trader who has nothing to sell.

      I will respond to all the comments in this blog – keep in touch.
      Cheers,
      Jai

  5. Hii Jai

    Iam a invester in the stock market but now trand in the indian stocks seems to be down can you tell me that it is the simllar type of downtrand which happen on the year 2008

    • Hi Babu,

      It is not out of the equation, it remains within the realm of possibilities. However, what should be clear to an individual investor is that, one must be raising cash levels and should be prepared for investing when the discount sale comes through. That level could be 4800-4700 or much lower. We can evaluate that when markets approach those decision point levels. The market would give us enough clues and sufficient time. Hope that helps.

      Cheers,
      Jai

  6. hi jai,
    i am a regular trader in the markets for the last ten years. i have been relying on charts to make my decision calls . just 2 days bak i happend to watch one of your old interview on the internet and then went through your profile and many of your comments and i have become your fan.
    i have bot hul and hcl tech futures for the shrt term althogh im not bullish on nifty .pls do let me knw your comments.pls be in regular touch .
    thanx
    regds.
    sunil
    ps: can i have your email adres/mob no?

  7. hi jai ,
    waiting to hear from you abt d market.
    thanx
    regds

  8. hello jai
    I am your fan u r the first person told that nifty will go 5800 , bcoz every person told nifty will go new high

    thanks

    regds

  9. Hello Mr Bala

    Noted your comments on CNBC (5-7-2011) ..Otherwise, do you think if the QE3 announcement by Fed Reserve will boost Indian markets..? Because of liquidity, globaly..? or will any news from the Fed destroy the American system and the collapse of the dollar..?
    What is your take on my comments..?

    Thank you

    Sushil

    • Hi Sushil,

      I’m a pure technical analyst – this would be best answered by an economist.

      My best guess based on how the Dollar Index is placed for the medium to Long term would be that – QE3 is not going happen or it will come way too late. The Dollar Index seems set for a big rally. The Fed will loose its already much diminished credibility if they come up with QE3 now( based on the statements they have issued recently). The world is caught between devil and deep sea – if Dollar is weakened further, it could lead to currency crisis; if not, deflationary force that the Fed has been trying to avoid will take control.

      As I said before, this subject is best discussed with an economist.

      Good luck,
      Jai

  10. Hey Jai,

    Am a big follower of your calls and views on CNBC and Bloomberg. With the recent fall in equities, whats ur view on the precious metals segment in commodites. Any evels to be watching.

    thanks,

    Pratik

  11. Hi Jai

    In recent past I viewed u’r calls in cnbc. impressed, nice feel that, I’ve met the right person.
    Being interested in fin markets. I’ll keep following u to enrich my thoughts.
    best wishes to go a long way in fin markets. will follow ‘r foot prints.

    Ravi

  12. wha would be the level where gold and silver will start coming down and nifty and bank nifty will start goingup? time wise how much damage left ? september or november 2011?

  13. Hi Jai ,
    My compliments to you for finally bringing in some seriousness and sort of responsibility in talking on TV as an expert….. who are actually taken seriously in India by the retail investors ….(.i almost stopped listening to most of the the TAs on TV )

    Having read ur profile I hope you look at changing your view and see how you could actually assist at least few investors to understand and act in the market ….

    Keep up the good work

    Andrew

  14. HI I AM A RELATIVELY NEW TECHNICAL TRADER.. WHAT IS THE NET CAPITAL RETURN ONE CAN TARGET OR OTHERWISE IS AVERAGELY POSSIBLE FOR A EXPERIENCED TRADER LIKE YOU???
    I SERIOUSLY WANT TO MAKE TRADING AS A PROFESSION… THANKS AS YOU HAVE SAID THAT YOU WILL REPLY TO ALL QUERIES……………..

    • Hi Ananth,

      What is the return you can target if you ran any other business? You can do as well as that or better than that. The important thing is to treat trading as a business. There is no one size fits all. There are technical traders who have turned $10k into several millions in under 2 years, there are others who are happy making just enough to live comfortably and there are others who have run down their trading accounts several times. It all depends on how one is able to handle the business of trading.

      All the best,
      Jai

  15. FIRST OF ALL THANKS A TON AS U ANSWERED MY QUESTION ……… AS I FIND MANY ANALYSTS ARE NOT READY TO REPLY OWING TO THEIR PERSONAL REASONS……. MY QUESTION IS AS NOVICE TRADERS IF WE MAKE 10 % PER MONTH ,, CONSISTENTLY WE DOUBLE THE TRADING CAPITAL IN A YEAR.. AND AS FAR AS MY KNOWLEDGE GOES AND I MAY BE WRONG ,.. DOUBLING TRADING CAPITAL EVERYYEAR IS SUPERB AS MONEY GROWS EXPONENTIALLY……………….. NEXT TRADING QUERIES………. WHAT I HAVE OBSERVED IS WHEN I GET A NEW BUY ON HOURLY CHART ON NIFTY BASED ON MACD HISTOGRAM BUYING CALLS TILL I GET THE NEXT SELL SIGNAL IS PROVING TO BE VERY USEFUL.. I BUY CALLS WHEN I GET HOURLY BUY ON MACD HISTOGRAM OR WHEN MACD HISTOGRAM GIVES FIRST UPTICK ABOVE ZERO AND I SELL WHEN MACD ON 30 MIN GIVES A SELL SIGNAL… IN THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER I GOT 2 BUY CALLS AND 1 SELL CALL ALL POSITIONAL………. WHAT IS THE STRATEGY EXPERIENCED TRADERS LIKE YOU FOLLOW .. I WILL BE HAPPY IF U CAN SHARE THOSE WITH AMATEURS LIKE ME ………… ADVANCED THANKS ////////////// HOPE YOU OBLIGE………………..

  16. JAI BALA JI ………… I WANT TO ASK AND DISCUSS ONLY TECHNICAL STRATEGIES WITH EXPERIENCED MASTERS LIKE YOU AND I SINCERELY FEEL IT CAN HELP ALL THE TRADERS WHO FOLLOW THE BLOG………. I EVEN SUGGEST TO PLEASE ASK QUESTIONS ON WHERE GOLD OR DOLLAR INDEX IS HEADED SO THAT WE CAN REPLY AND GET OUR ANSWERS CHECKED BY YOU

    REGARDS…….

    • Ananth,

      Can you please use lower case? If you use upper case it means you are angry and/or yelling.
      Every successful trader or investor has their own edge. You have to find out what is yours. If I told you what is mine – it would no longer be my edge, would it? 😀 Remember one thing: more often one is in the market, more often one has to decide buy, sell or hold. AND markets are inherently risky, so more often one is in the markets, more the exposure to risk.

      All the best,
      Jai

  17. Hi Jai

    I started off first time in life with the Indian markets … kind of Jan 2011. Entered with investment only in mind. Swings from 5150 to 5750 about 3,4 times did offer a few good opportunities on specific stocks e.g. VST, VIP, Godfrey and some others that swung back but few hit newer lows recently/currently. My horizon is long kind of 3, 5, 10, 15 … 30 years But since i entered i only find myself in turbulent indices / stock variations that seem unreasonable to my sound mathematical (though not stock-analysis wise) mind. Quiet a few places talk about 2800 3500 or so. In that case all my plans for investing is going to end up giving me eroded capital 🙁

    Iam confused on what to do with what i planned since 2011 and what i already converted to equities. One thing i do understand from your excellent mathematical models / tech on nifty is one could (have) wait more. But is there a way to perform technical analysis on single stock as well (apologize i understand very few attributes that i check PE, P/B, debt, growth etc), In-spite of turbulence I see few stocks trading +5% day in / out even at 30X, 40X PE multiples …. going crazy how all this works.

    is it possible to time a 4300-4400 nifty ?

    If you could not respond , no problem. Thank you much for reading and especially for your excellent grasp and crisp tech-analysis … i keep following be it here or channels.

    regards
    Venkat

    • Hi Venkat,

      I have seen far too many people fail every 3 or 4 years using the fundamental approach(during the bear markets). In fact my deep-dive into technicals was a direct result of a service that failed miserably in a bear market and did well in a bull market.

      When I hear people say stock XYZ is a good company, so buy it for the long term, do not bother about the short term downsides, I consider that one of the most horrible piece of advice. When a stock goes down by 15% it needs to make up 17% to break-even and after that start making profits. Now, think about stocks like BHEL (down 40% since Nov) or Infosys(down 37% from peak). Are these not good companies from a fundamental perspective? If someone had invested in these companies between Nov and Jan, how difficult do you think its going to be for them to start making profits? So the way I see things, unless the trend is in one’s favour, they should not invest. Once the trend is favourable, then they can decide to invest in “good companies”.

      Yes you can time the market using technicals but it is very unlikely to get you in at the exact low or on the day low is registered. You may end up buying 2-5% higher from the bottom a market index registers. But hey, you are not trying to swim upstream and money will be working positively. To your question about whether TA can be applied to individual stocks: You hide the name of the asset class and just give me price and volume – it is the same for everything, be it stocks, bonds, currencies or commodities.

      Good luck and All the best ,
      Jai

  18. sorry to use upper case, anger and yelling seriousllllllly no. its just a habit..on a lighter note i want to ask you ,, u said “If I told you what is mine – it would no longer be my edge, would it? :” would it mean if you discuss or disclose your weapons they become useless from the next day? as novice trader i was just curious to know more advanced strategies…………and u said “” remember one thing: more often one is in the market, more often one has to decide buy, sell or hold. AND markets are inherently risky, so more often one is in the markets, more the exposure to risk.”
    i agree to what you have said.. but to make money on a consistent basis we need to stay in the market either long or short more so if we trade only futures “” i request you to suggest me some good books which discusses some trading strategies and on when to trade , when not to and how to know the difference”

    • Hi Ananth,

      See recommended reading page in the blog for books. Jack Schwager’s book will give you insight into what leading traders think. The strategy discussion is an endless subject, this is not the right forum for it. Let me just say I was talking more particularly with your hourly buy/sell signals. If you read past posts it will give you an insight into the way I approach markets.

      All the best,
      Jai.

  19. Hi Jai,

    First of all I am an ardent admirer and follower of you, I have been into markets for the last ten years and burnt my fingers many times but most largely I have lost about say 10 laks in these years. Since I have another profession it did not really bother me till now as I really want to take up trading as a profession. I still feel that all the mistakes that I have done in the past are of ignorance and lack of knowledge, but of late I have started reading books which are listed below:

    Intelligent Investor: The Classic Text On Value Investing by Benjamin Graham

    Elliott Wave Principle – Key To Stock Market Behavior by Prechter Robert R. Jr. , Charles J. Collins, A. J. Frost

    Fibonacci Analysis by Constance Brown

    45 Years In Wall Street by William D. Gann

    My question is: Am I reading too much, should I stick to just Elliot and how long do you think to at least know things if one is level headed.

    Thanks in advance for the reply.

    Thanks and regards,
    Makesh.R

    • Hi Makesh,

      I’m a poor reader, so I will not comment on too much reading. I can see that you are reading books on both fundamentals and technicals. You must understand that often your reading of the market through these 2 schools of thought will be divergent. If you can build a method using both fundamentals and technicals and you know how to resolve such conflicting views, be on the right side, nothing like that.

      But if you are asking which school of thought to follow, I guess you already know my answer 🙂

      All the best,
      Jai

      • Hi Jai,

        Thanks for the prompt reply; I am also on the same side. Reading II by BG just to know the fundamentals of the system. I have also placed the order for your recommendations. Is Elliot the best technical line to follow- like according to you?, also I would seriously request you to start a seminar or some kind of class atleast online on chargable basis so we could learn a lot.

        Thanks and regards,
        Makesh.R

  20. hello sir
    that’s true please start advisory service for derivatives also hope you will think on that
    thank you

    • Hi Zubair,

      The admin side has to be smooth, I should not be bogged down by admin and end up in a situation that leads to inefficiency in the service I’m trying to provide. Few software’s and plug ins are under evaluation. I’m also in touch with my Chartered accountant to get things perfectly. Hopefully, I can sort all these quickly.

      Cheers,
      Jai

  21. Jai,

    U have been great help to us..

    I am involved into electronic payments, specifically Internet payments in India. Let me know if I can be of help in any ways for your endeavor.

    Regards

  22. Hi Jai,

    You had mentoined that one should be careful with short positions at 4900 as there is a tendency to bounce again (orange line) does the scenario exixts now or is it good to go short?

    Thanks and regards,

    Makesh.R

  23. Hi Jai,

    Which is your favourate segment of trading in equities—-> intra day, futures, options or positional trade of short term in cash..what do you suggest to others who are trading from last 10 years and always in loss. i tried as investor, trader nothing really work… pl guide

    thks
    Anant

    • Hi Anant,

      IMO, intra-day toughest, positional trades are far easier. The most important thing is – a day trader must not say “Ok its not working today, I will carry the position overnight” or a short term trader must not say “ok its not working now, but I will hold it for the longer term”. These rationalisations are sure way to wrecking one’s capital.

      All the best,
      Jai

  24. Dear Sir,
    How to avail your paid services, request you to kindly give the information regarding the same.

    Thanks and Regards
    Nand Kishore Sah

 Leave a Reply

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>

(required)

(required)