Nov 162011

Nifty(5068.5): It was highlighted here yesterday, that 5115 would offer some temporary relief to the market and a breach of that level would signal a further fall to 5045. Nifty opened lower paused at 5120, bounced gently, consolidated in a small range above between 5120 and 5160 and broke through the morning to clock a low of 5053 for the day.

Nifty Intraday charts

Yesterday’s price action as greatly reduced the dip from 5400 being a corrective drop and hence we are labeling them as 1,2,3. First things first, if you are short, today’s open or the first one hour might be a good opportunity to take profits, either fully or partially (We nearly got our 5045). The red 4 shown on chart has either started or about to start and it is going to be a bit tricky toΒ  nail the end of this wave (most corrective waves are). Here is the broad idea – once again it looks unlikely that we will see a move beyond 5220. BUT, there is a small possibility that during this corrective rise, we might see a path as shown in the chart, with a small dip below 5000.Β  OR the morning session takes Nifty to either 5011 or 4985 and the red wave 4 starts from there. We all wish there was an easy way to nail the exact low πŸ™‚ Don’t we?

Open positions:

Long Reliance Nov 2011 840 put from 12

Silver Short with stop at $35.7 from $34.2

Hindustan Zinc Nov Fut Short from 122.5

Nifty Short from Monday morning ( close this today during the first 15mins or 5035-45 whichever comes first)

USDINR Long from 20-Oct-2011 stop 48.3

 Posted by at 2:46 am

  30 Responses to “Technicals 16th Nov 2011”

  1. You stopped silver with an SMS albeit a little early, but I shorted again yesterday.after reading your comments.

    • Hey ,
      I do not know if it triggered on MCX, but it was way below $35.7 on Comex. Good that you got back in.

  2. hi jai,
    a small request can u also post the trades on membership area / email, whenever a call is given via sms, i am requesting this cause i did not get the message regarding going short on nifty, i am came to know about it now while reading this post,

  3. Hi Jai Good morning

    Your advice on holding IRB inra. Thanks

  4. Jai,

    Missed your SMS on silver call – did not get to me.

    Your references to nifty – cash or futures?


    • Dear Shiva,
      All levels cash unless mentioned otherwise. Silver was posted to site and mail sent. Nifty was a setup posted, before market open on Monday.

  5. Jai,

    Should we hold Reliance put or square off?


    • Think we will get a small profit today, be ready to book

      • Euro has broken below 1.3480. Your analysis on what this portends for the markets worldwide and India in particular, please.

        • Retest of October bottom(for Euro, Stocks) or top (for currencies like USD or Tbonds) is coming but things might get pushed around a bit before that.

  6. Hi jai,
    what’s your view on Indusind bank from a short to medium term

  7. Hi Jai
    Can I buy BHEL. It looks attractive now. Your views pls

  8. Jai,

    Again, very good call.

    I was keen to short CRUDE. Never done this before. Pls let know ur views.


    • Yes Crude at ideal place for short. I think it will not cross 99.70. May drop to 84-82 from here. Will post a chart if possible

      • Shorted crude on MCX when NYMEX is showing 99.11 & ICE WTI at 99.13. Please disclose stop on either. J.

        • 99.52 now on Nymex now. If you can do this as a covered put it would be better. Stop of 100.1 better though I think it will not cross 99.7-99.8. If u want to be conservative, SELL ONLY when it breaks 98.35 with stop at 99.7 Be careful today, crude inventory today at 1530 GMT. I think it will help in the fall, but if it gets whippy, see if its a shake out

  9. Jai,

    What a call dude what a call. Two days nifty came down as you said and today a fantastic bounce back again as you said.


    Did I or did I not say wait and see. Jai is just too good. If you all have traded as per his views you would have made quite a bit of money. In equity and USDINR. More than what one would have lost in his stopped out calls.


    • Agile,

      Honestly, I could have done better. I’m not pleased. You have been with me for 10yrs, you know this month was certainly not my best πŸ™‚ Timing on Wipro and Reliance should have been better. Froze on HUL and Bharti despite identifying them in mid- October.

      Appreciate your feedback though. Thanks

      • One of the things that is so great about you – you ALWAYS feel you could do better – and you get better and better… πŸ™‚

  10. Dear Agile,

    Now we know why ur trading better than rest of us …..” As you have been trading with Jai for last 10 yrs”.

    With the time we will also get better and start understanding his calls in better manner πŸ™‚ Today i also made contra trade in nifty as per his view and made some money as i couldn’t understood his call on nifty short on monday !!!! i was waiting for him to confirm for going short as most of people on the blog are mentioning…..not getting the call for nifty short. I think our trading will improve with time πŸ™‚

    Vipan Gupta

    • Vipan,

      He was a wise trader by himself. He had traded during Harshad times when I had read about it only in newspaper. I may have aggravated the fire in him that’s all.


  11. jai,
    all the shorts were covered today, was not able to make much on rel 840.00 put as had bought at 15.50 and sold at 15.35. at what levels of nifty and others we could reload and make some handsome gains, as past one month has not been too good on profit side, also your medium term view on nifty how much downside expected from here,

  12. Dear Jai,

    Oh …………..if that is the case πŸ™‚ may be we will also learn some wise tricks from agile also πŸ™‚ if he decided to teaches us πŸ™‚


  13. Dear Jai,

    Even I would like to add, though I haven’t been able to trade each & every call you gave but I’ve been following them all & learning a lot.

    Although was a bit late in shorting silver – still holding the same.

    Last few years I have been understanding the importance of technical analysis which I must say has only got more confirmed time & again from your analysis & expertise! πŸ™‚

    Thanks & Regards,

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