Nity(5148.35): A gap up open turned out to be an opportunity to sell as the markets at close managed to breach even the Friday's low by a slight margin.
Nifty intraday charts
The intraday pattern as at a stage where it is going to clue us in on the larger move for the next several weeks. In the chart above we are in the blue v wave. This v could end today closer to 5116, give or take a few points. If it does break, the next logical ending point for this wave is around 5045. However, what the markets does post the blue v is going to be more important. If Nifty follows the path shown from 5115 on the Nifty (blue dashed line), ie stays under 5205, the higher degree 5th wave should take Nifty closer to 5025 (red arrow). However if Nifty exceeds 5205, it is going to be a different play (we will come to that in the next post). So, if you are short, you might want to book profits around 5115 and reload closer to 5200 with a stop at 5206 cash or just hold with a stop at 5206 cash. However, if 5116 does not hold today, we have to assume that blue v will end at 5045 (need not be today).
Watch the INR - that is going to be key. Further weakness is not going to help stocks. If you have noticed, one thing that has been consistent over this results season - "Forex Losses"
29 Responses to “Technicals Nov 15th 2011”
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Dear Jai
What’s your view on reliance industries now.. It is finding resistance around 890-900 zone. Should we hold on to our puts till expiry or get out if it hits 850, the levels from which bounced back on friday.
Yes, that remains bearish as long as it stays below 910, but a confirmation has been missing. A close below 855 would have done it. We saw an intraday dip on Thursday below that level.
hi jai
in your earlier post u had mentioned about euro if it goes below 1.37, it has gone below that level can u touch base regarding that viz our market, one more thing i have not closed the petronet short, after receiving your message i inquired it was @ 173.00 probably i was late since it was just 0.50 paise above our stop loss i did not close the trade since then it has come down, is it advisable to still hold the short, kindly advice
regards
Hold with 176 stop. See yesterday’s chart. The medium trend is corrective. Might get 152 or even 140. Euro looks set for a retest of 1.31 but will happen after a while> now 1.3480 will hold, below that it should be fast.
thanks jai,
more interested to know about the effects of weak euro on our market
taken position in moserbaer at 26. shall i hold or shall i book loss
Did you take partial profits @28 odds? Can book out on a small rise
Hi Jai
What s your view on L & T. I took at 1410. Should I hold for long term
Regards
I have a negative view on LT, looking at 1000 by Jan 2012, looking at a small rise to sell.
Dear Jai,
Can u pls make table of the calls given and update their status as some times proper communication doesn’t happens when SL triggers or after some time we forget the status of original calls and what was the SL…. this will help everyone … if u could.
It is only for those calls which u have given to everyone ….rest consult stuff need not to mention.
Regards
Sure will do
Jai,
Good call on the Nifty yesterday and today. Thanks
Regards
Hi Jai,
How do the charts of Hero Honda look to you ? Chance to take a short trade here ?
Regards
Auto’s as a sector is about to top out. I’ve been saying for a while that they were in their final leg of their move (wave 5). Hero exhaustion point was 2329 but it may not come. Wait for a lower top and we can whack the sector.
jai,
i had short LT @ 1415 today it has come down near to your earlier target of 1280.00 should i cover the shorts or more downside expected, i had also short wipro @ 385.00 but not much dowside witnessed, should i continue holding it or cover the shorts.
regards
A relief is due on Nifty soon, tomo might open with residual selling but likely to bounce from 5045 or 5011. Its going to be tough for it to get back to 1410 now but may meander aimlessly for a few sessions 1260-1350. Hold with a tightened stop at 1363. If you hold multiple contracts book half and hold half.
at what level should i put the stop loss 1350.00? or is it advisable to book profit and again short it at around 1325.00 level, also kindly advice on wipro
1363 best stop. Yes reloading better. Wait for the bounce to start on Nifty from 5045-5011 and then see if its seeing an effect on LT and then book.
Jai,
I am still holding the short on Silver. Any fresh views there ?
Regards
Im holding too 🙂
OK good….I will take your advice, Rocky Balboa…..
Regards
Jai
I had heard you talking on cnbc that sbin should range between 1700-2100.. SBI is close to its lower end of the range.. Would really appreciate your view on it and Tata Steel..
regards
Most metal stocks are headed for a new low. Tatasteel to 375. Allow for a rise and short. SBI range 1700 to 2050. Yes some signs of exhaustion visible but expect bounce to be a relief rally. The stock must hold 1670 else it runs a risk of 1400’s.
Jai,
I have a mandate from a client for long only. In this market, I have cash partially in the portfolio to partially offset the downtrend. However, I am still getting whipped because beta is exploding erratically. Which stocks and sectors do you see being stabler or out performing, even if it’s on the downside, over the next 12 months. I know it’s a tall order to ask this. Kindly advice with a notional portfolio for this mandate.
Regards
The honest answer is there are few places to hide. But the ever reliable HUL and ITC will be the best place on a RELATIVE scale. Auto’s be careful, this sector may have played out and is about to get erratic. Also BPCL, GAIL might be relative plays again not absolute.
Best,
Jai
Should we go long on nifty at this level using calls
You can Prateek, but MUST use 4970 as stop or today’s low as stop – remember this is a counter-trend move.
i had bought a nifty 5000 call when nifty had hit 4995…. Till what level can we hold that…..in terms of Nifty cash
Extremely sensible thing to have done. Holding till Nifty hits 5150 ballpark, you can hold