AAPL - 60mins chart, Data and Chart Courtesy Bloomberg

With that in mind, let us look at the bigger picture – the real big picture. As shown in the monthly charts below, it is possible to count 5 waves from the 1997 low. And at the top of wave 5 a clear drop in momentum readings – a disagreement between price and momentum.

Apple Monthly Charts; Data & Charts esignal

Let us zoom in little more closer – the weekly charts. The 5th wave starting from the 2009 low can be interpreted in a couple of ways.

AAPL weekly charts; Data and Charts - esignal

My interpretation is that the first wave within the 5th was extended. In that case we have a perfect ending relationship – Waves 3+5 are 0.382 times extended wave 1. The momentum divergence here is more pronounced than on the monthly charts.  So there is a good chance that the top 705 was a wave 5 top.

Seeing the above evidence, I lean towards the possibility that AAPL has seen a MASSIVE TOP, a 5th of a 5th. If I’m right, we are possibly looking at AAPL declining to $80 in the next 3-4 years. Either AAPL will burn cash or competition will crush AAPL or some other form of roadblock could be the reason but we are not bothered about the reasons. Reasons will come later. Think such a decline is not possible?  Think Nortel, Juniper, Himachal Futuristic, Satyam to name a few.  Short term: Apple could bounce from sub 600 to 650-674, if it does, I think it will be a low risk selling opportunity.

The broader implication if this analysis is correct – the world is up for some nasty months.

Disclosure: I’m short Apple. I own a couple of Iphones and an Ipad and I will be Queuing up for Apple’s mini Ipad.

In my May 2010 post, I had highlighted how such fancy theories can be quite flawed and prevent you from arriving at the best investment decisions. Now to Mr Buffett’s renewed Vitiriol against gold:

1) The cube of gold will produce nothing in the next hundred years

My answer: No one makes investment decision for next hundred years

2) The cube of gold will not pay you interest or dividends, and it won’t grow earnings.

My answer: So will be the case with a boat load of stocks. The S&P has gone no where in the last 13 years.

3) You can fondle the cube of gold, but it won’t respond.

My answer: Yes, witty.   Hence I’ll try to be funny too.   Mr Buffett should know what to fondle.   If you own lots of gold you do not need to fondle, ‘they’ will fondle you

The reason for Mr Buffett’s bashing?   Well, whatever I say would purely be a guess but I would let the performance of Gold speak for itself:

Gold’s return for the last 10yrs – 488.19%

BRK’s return for the last 10 yrs – 67.77%

Gold continues to wallop the performance of  Berkshire Hathway by a GIGANTIC 420% over his preferred time frame of 10 years.

And if you had listened to Mr Buffett’s  Annual letter of last year, you are in the elite company of those who missed the best performing asset class of 2011 – long dated bonds that returned almost 30%.

Here are the words of another  billionaire who is in the same business. “At the end of the day, your job is to buy what goes up and to sell what goes down. So really who gives a damn about PE’s?” – Paul Tudor Jones

Baltic Dry Index

If you are wondering why should this be of any significance – the index is a very important measure of the health of global economy. You could either believe the commentators who are saying that we are seeing rally in equity markets because Europe is “close to being solved” (when Maths 101 tells us its impossible) or pay attention to the warning signal from this index and stay cautious and try to be safe.

INR - Breakout from a consolidation

A narrow consolidation after a powerful move and a wide range bar. The next stage of Rupee weakness is here.

INR - Breakout from a consolidation

A narrow consolidation after a powerful move and a wide range bar. The next stage of Rupee weakness is here.

Silver - rising wedge

The above chart of silver shows a rising wedge pattern with a typical throw-over to the upside. Yesterday’s close was well below the bottom of the rising wedge and this should usher in a sharp down move for the industrial metal probably before the end of this month. Looking at the chart from an Elliott wave perspective, silver is probably in its powerful 3rd wave or C wave which has the characteristics of wave 3. At $26.7 the first leg of the decline from 50 would be equal to the move from 44.27 (and hence A=C), the August peak, which seems like the minimum drop that is likely for silver. Also the $26 zone is the previous 4th for Silver.

Naturally, some of us would be thinking, “what happens to gold now?”

Gold Daily Chart - Potential for a double top

Here too, it is obvious that Gold is running into troubled waters. A fake print above 1913 high, momentum disagreeing with the new high in price are all tell-tale signs of exhaustion. A close below 1763 or an intraday drop below 1705 would complete a double top for gold and should draw prices at the very least to 1480.

Given the fact that the Dollar Index too had a breakout to the upside just a few days ago,  you might want to pay considerable attention to these signals in the precious metals space.

Indian Rupee - Triple bottom

If the currency pair ends today above 46.1 today (a weekly closing), it would be closing above its weekly “cloud” for the first time since August 2009. This would be another bearish sign for the Rupee (I recall turning bullish on the Rupee in April 2009.)

Indian Rupee - Weekly Ichimoku charts

In 2008, when INR closed above the “cloud”, the Rupee weakness lasted several months until it peaked at the level of 52.18.

If we look at the movements of the INR from an Elliott wave perspective – it does look like USD/INR is in it’s early stages of its powerful wave 3. The triple bottom low of 43.85 is just a shade over the 62% fibonacci retracement level of the move from the 2008 lows to the March 2009 high. This is a very common wave relationship.

Now comes the staggering bit – if my wave labelling is correct, the potential for the Rupee over the next several months, works out to at least a little over 57 and a typical wave 3 relationship would take the rupee to a level of 65!!!!

So there it is, another asset class that is closely related to the Indian stock market’s price movements, reiterating the bearish case for India.

Gold - Daily Charts

In Technical terms: This is an extended wave 5. Almost always when the extended moves ends, it will be followed by a VERY HARD drop.

The sentiment picture: Talk to anyone around you, they will tell you must be insane not to own gold. I’ve been seeing facebook status from wannabe analysts and public stating heads or tails Gold wins. That is your sentiment picture screaming that the boat is about to capsize.

So, it is absolutely essential to understand that this not the time to create new long positions in Gold. If you are already long, be ready to fold.

Gold is not money!! And central banks hold gold because of tradition!! T R A D I T I O N!!

The force behind this move is the Dollar Index, which until now had refused to head higher despite being heavily oversold on multiple counts.

Dollar Index - Daily Chart

If you look the charts of UUP, the bullish dollar index fund, the 1.5% rise for this currency basket has come with a massive buildup in volumes. Also a gap up in UUP after a congestion holds the probability that the gains could stick and could even be a reversal.  A follow through in Friday’ session for the USD would bode well for those rare Dollar Bulls. One thing that is quite clear, if this is not the reversal for the green-back, whenever it occurs, what we saw in yesterday’s session is a mere curtain-raiser of things to come for risk assets.

Looking at the charts of Gold and Crude, there is more evidence that this is probably a turn of high significance for the intermediate to long term.

Gold: The weekly charts of Gold will end up being a bearish outside week (unless it recovers $40 in today’s session) and this high probability reversal has occured at a very important time ratio as shown in the chart.

Gold - Bearish reversal

Crude: A bearish outside week in crude and  Price/Time have squared at the high.

Crude - weekly charts