{"id":785,"date":"2011-06-14T02:58:02","date_gmt":"2011-06-14T02:58:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.cashthechaos.com\/blog\/?p=785"},"modified":"2011-06-14T03:36:22","modified_gmt":"2011-06-14T03:36:22","slug":"nse-nifty-the-bullish-and-the-bearish-possibilities","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.cashthechaos.com\/blog\/2011\/06\/14\/nse-nifty-the-bullish-and-the-bearish-possibilities\/","title":{"rendered":"NSE Nifty : The bullish and the bearish possibilities"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Nifty has been in the range of 5600 to 5400 for the sixth week and has kept everyone guessing as to which way the range would resolve. As a good trader, one needs constantly play devil's advocate to your own views. So, here are the charts that present both the bullish and the bearish views.<\/p>\n

If you are a bull:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>

Nifty - Daily Charts - as the bulls would like to read<\/p><\/div>\n

The above Elliot wave count assumes that the November high was only a portion of a larger bull run and further gains are yet to follow. The violet wave 1 ended at the November highs and the\u00a0subsequent\u00a0decline into the January lows of 5177 completed the corrective wave violet 2 (which sub divided as a zig-zag red ABC). \u00a0This would mean that the move to the May high was wave 1 green (impulsive) \u00a0and is part of the powerful wave 3 violet which is likely to reach levels way beyond the all time highs.<\/p>\n

Line in sand - If Nifty dips below 5320 it would weaken the bullish case<\/span> though only a breach of 5177 would\u00a0completely\u00a0negate this option.<\/p>\n

What's in favour? - Despite the global and regional weakness, India has been holding up well in the last few days.<\/p>\n

What's against? - Reliance and ONGC ,the two heavy weights, are showing\u00a0weakness. A big negative pattern \u00a0is under construction in ONGC. The assumed wave count to the May highs is a truncation - which normally does not help the case. The blue dotted trend-line shown is also likely to place a lid on the upward move.<\/p>\n

If you are a bear:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>

Nifty - Daily Chart - as the bears would like to read<\/p><\/div>\n

The bearish case has multiple options and I have taken the least<\/span> bearish option. If we assume the November high was the end of violet wave 1, the decline into the January lows was only part of a larger correction Violet A, that sub-divided into red ABC. The rise into May high is assumed as corrective in nature, Violet B (which again sub-divided as blue ABC). The ongoing move from the May high is part of the Violet C wave decline which is expected to sub divide in to 5 waves. Of this 5 waves we have probably completed the first wave of the decline (blue 1 of Purple C) and we are the beginning of a powerful wave 3 (blue 3 of purple C) that would take market below 5000 (black arrows) or the corrective wave 2 is yet to complete(blue dotted path) before the powerful blue 3 of purple C takes Nifty well below 5000.<\/p>\n

Line in sand - A move above 5650 would weaken the bearish case though only a breach of 5944 would force us to suspend the bearish bets.<\/span><\/p>\n

What's in favour? - Exactly what is against the bullish case favours this - ONGC and Reliance. Also, the Dollar Index seems set for a powerful move that is likely to unleash a destructive move on most risk assets across the globe.<\/p>\n

What is against? - Nifty has not managed to consolidate on the advantage of taking out the March lows and move briskly below the January lows.<\/p>\n

PS: If you would like to know which side i'm leaning - i've been on the bearish side since November and I continue to do so.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Nifty has been in the range of 5600 to 5400 for the sixth week and has kept everyone guessing as to which way the range would resolve. As a good trader, one needs constantly play devil’s advocate to your own views. So, here are the charts that present both the bullish and the bearish […]<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[42],"tags":[60,92,10],"class_list":["post-785","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-indian-stocks","tag-elliott-wave-count","tag-nifty","tag-nifty-view","category-42-id","post-seq-1","post-parity-odd","meta-position-corners","fix"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cashthechaos.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/785","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cashthechaos.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cashthechaos.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cashthechaos.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cashthechaos.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=785"}],"version-history":[{"count":18,"href":"https:\/\/www.cashthechaos.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/785\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":790,"href":"https:\/\/www.cashthechaos.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/785\/revisions\/790"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cashthechaos.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=785"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cashthechaos.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=785"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cashthechaos.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=785"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}