Nifty(5375.50): Nifty saw a bounce back after 4 sessions of decline. We have a "Inside Day" pattern on the daily charts and considering the wide ranged bar on Monday this was expected.
Nifty- Daily Chart - Inside day
Nifty is correcting the decline from 5630 to 5268. This is basically phase of 2 of the move that started from 5630 and counter trending. Phase 3 will be a equal to the 4 sessions of decline from 5630 or sharper than that. The level of 5077 is a 4th wave of previous degree and we should ideally see Nifty descend there if not lower. A couple of Fibonacci clusters also come in slightly above here.
Hence we should be looking to add some short positions on Nifty in a staggered manner at or around 5450 and 5495 (may be as early as 5410). If the momentum seems strong and blows through these levels - keep your powder dry. We must see some kind of stalling around these levels. Ill anyway be monitoring the intraday action.
New Positions:
1) Long Apollo Tyres 78 Sl 72 at close Tgt 89
2) Long GMDC 207 SL 194 at close Tgt 240
32 Responses to “Technicals 29th Feb 2012”
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Dear Jai,
Sorry but I didn’t get the message for going long on Apollo yesterday. However I got the call for GMDC. Will you please check?
Ajay
hmm, strange – will defintely check. In the mean time – do not take Apollo now if the msg did not reach you. Or keep it to just 1/3rd the size u wud have at 78.
Thanks,
Jai
You had mentioned some time back about a rise to 5950 kind of levels and then a decline .Do you think that is not in the scheme of things in the extreme short term?
i too didn’t recieve any message of going long on eiter Apollo or GMDC. Please check.
hi jai
even i have not received the message for apollo and the message for gmdc was received after the market closed i.e. around 3:47 pm, today it has opened up i have not done the trades, kindly advice whether to go ahead at what levels
regards
GMDC is around the same levels -so can take it. See comments for Apollo below.
Ok, I just checked, there has been a rare network jam on my carrier and bcos of this the messages have only been partially delivered – some of you have got it and some of you have not. GMDC most of you seem to have got it. Apollo much less number.
GMDC is more or less near entry price of 207 so can take it. Apollo, keep it an intraday trade if you took it. IF you dint do not take now as it is already at 86 just 3 less than target.
APOLOGIES to all – the network jam is beyond my control – may be I must short STARHUB (my network) 🙂 We will get the next trade in.
Hi Jai, I missed Apollo’s message. Got GMDC. I am Short on HDIL and Unitech. Can you please advise how they look on charts? Thanks
Hey Jai, Any views for gold/silver??? seems like the LTRO has been factored in?? Good time for shorts??
IF shorting gold use $1805 as stop. Silver the sentiment has gone very high – as long as this stays below $37-38. This looks like the false Euphoria, like the 1st leg of correction after Nasdaq top in 2000. But both are yet to show weakness in the short term. I’m waiting – probably LTRO shud provide the pop and drop.
Jai,
Can i request you to post an updated view of SBI. Specially in the short term.
Regards
Good chance it wont exceed 2295 and a dip to 1970 first seems more probable before anything.
Jai
How would u recommend shorting it with puts.
regds
prateek sinha
We bought 5k puts yday right? This time there has been no SMS jam 🙂
yeah i had bought those but i was asking about shorting sbin with march puts.
I did not got any message (position calls) from you. Did you suggested us to take any position in nifty?
-Kishan Bobba
Yes Kishan, please see morning note and email
Jai Bala,
Is the C wave is in the making?
-Kishan Bobba
There is good potential for it. If so, next one will be 2 of C. We should load heavily there. We need to monitor the internals of the move.
Cheers,
Jai
Jai
i dont really understand Elliowaves so when u say 2 of c will it mean it ll go up or come down
Prateek,
It was for someone who seems to understand EW. Dont worry, basically the message is to sell on bounce so that we can make use of the powerful leg of decline that would follow after that. Be patient – will alert in simple english after we I can see the confirmation.
hi jai,
wat about today technical what to do in gmdc ltd since it is approaching to SL.
As you might have noted, The stop is on a closing basis not intraday. So we have wait till 3:25pm.
GMDC had a 52 week breakout with good volume. so there is a good chance that will head higher. So if it shakes out at 194, be ready to reload when mkt picks up
Stop loss hit for GMDC, not yet stopped. what do u suggest?
Ajay
In such situations when SL’s are so close and the markets are trending lower in the short term – err on the conservative side and exit.
Hi Jai,
With the event tmrw there could be a possibility that the market opens gap down,do u recommend exiting GMDC @ current level ?
Regards
Parag
Yes. But I did not expect it hold 194 in yesterday’s weak price action. When it bounces we can enter again if needed
Jai,
Can I request for your views on TTK P please. I know its off beat, but somehow ended up with some small quantity.
Regards
Very good for the next bull market but it looks like it has currently finished 5 waves up or there is max 1 last push. Correction potential 1900-1450
Your first sentence is a joke 🙂 isnt it ?
Im a natural Bull Rut. Being bearish is an acquired thing 🙂 but that’s what the technical structure demands of me. Since you understand EW a bit, the 5 waves make wave 3 of bigger degree. The correction will be wave 4 of bigger degree even if it drops to 1900. So in the next bigger degree wave 5, TTK should atleast retest the high if not exceed. Did not want to get all technical.
Jai,
Very good call on Nifty…
Regards