Feb 082012
Nifty(5335) - Resistance 5415 and Support 5300 and 5240
USDINR has found support at previous 4th wave of 48.5
INR daily charts
INR should weaken to 50.2-50.6 but we need further evidence from the movement here to signal that a bigger move is beginning for INR. There is a small possibility of one more leg of strength for INR .
New position: Chambal Fert Short @ 86.5-87 Target of 77 stop 92
13 Responses to “Technicals Feb 8th 2012”
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What is your proprietary indicator suggesting at this point of time?
It is not calling this a bull market. Which is the reason why I prefer to go with Case 2 outlined in yesterday’s morning note.
Please note – my view is not based on any one indicator at any point in time 🙂 It is always based on a number of non-correlated information.
Buy USDINR?
Dear Jai,
I am still holding one lot of chambal. what do u suggest, to get out or hold.
Ajay
Use the recent high as stop (94 cash). IF it goes below 86, you will know it is going to work
Thanks for the timely advice. I was able to get out at 87, ie no loss no profit
Jai – I think you are working on it, but do you plan to publish some charts with labeling, Have several shorts that are not in profit and was wondering if I need to book them or get out (all nearing stop losses that I had set – another 2 days of 40-50 point NIFTY movement and the with the sector rotation that the FII’s are doing it is probably another 2 days before they hit sectors that I have shorted :-)).
Thanks,
Vivek
What will you give a higher probability in the immediate term,Nifty reaching 4950 kind of levels first or 5650 kind of levels and then a pullback?
5650 seems improbable immediately. So I have to go with 4950. Watch 5077 though, that is an important level of support now.
Jai,
I thought you had said two days back that you preferred model is for the Nifty to go to 5650 – 5950 first in the next 6 weeks. Did i miss something ?
Are you saying that it might first go to 4950 and then back up to 5650-5950 ?
Regards
Yes the latter. 5650 not immediately as in not in the next 7-10 sessions. I need to revisit the 5650-5900 scenario again on the time factor. Remember time is always the difficult component of market analysis.
Even I read it as Rut did – 5650 – 5950 first in next 6 weeks before it sees 4950. Guess there are too many confusing signals to make a right call. Even now the momentum seems to be strong though the volume seems to be coming down (futures). I think as long as US and EUR prints more bills which will find its way to the EM, the market will be volatile, to give decent trading for very very short term traders and day traders.
Thanks