Dec 222011
 

Nifty(4693.15) Markets staged big rally of 3.2% from the important support of 4530. Remember, one day does not make a trend and sustainability and follow through are hall marks of a trend. Shanghai composite has hit yet another new 52 week low this morning. Let us see how long the window dressing for Nifty lasts. If Nifty heads below 4600, yesterday's low, it will be clear indication of a shallow correction having come to an end.

Nifty hourly charts

Before we get too aggressive on the short side, we would like to see additional clues for the short term. However, the medium term trend is strongly down. Resistance(marked in yellow) 4810-4840 is going to be formidable in the event Nifty manages to conquer 4730. Support is at 4530 and a breach of this would signal a move to 4380.

Open position: Short Indusind @267 (partial profits taken)

 Posted by at 3:19 am

  20 Responses to “Technicals Dec 22nd 2011”

  1. Jai,

    A few weeks back, u were looking at the HDFC twins closely.any thoughts ?

    Regards

  2. Jai Bala,

    Small suggestion. I think it will be lot good for us if you assign TAGs for the articles.

    -Kishan

  3. Jai, Your view on BHEL pls, thanks

    • I was expecting it to hit 196 atleast b4 one can think about a bottom. I dont think that has changed but watching it closely

  4. Jai,

    Is it ok to share a couple of my trades here? It might give an idea to people and clear a few doubts that are being raised from time to time.

    *****************************************

    1. When I got Jai’s call to book 4500 put at 56, it was at 50 but I sold all my puts anyway. During the day the Nifty went down sharply later and the put went upto 60 but that was ok. The important thing was that I made money on the trade.

    Nifty went down to make a new low but till around one of the the supports mentioned by Jai.
    It was a sharp drop.
    There was every likelihood that the markets were heading lower the next day to the next levels but…
    I bought 4700 calls at Rs. 40/-.
    The value of the calls dropped to less than Rs. 30/- towards the end of the day.
    But the next day the markets opened higher and headed higher during the later part of the day. I sold half of my calls at Rs. 75/-. It went further up to over Rs. 80/- but understand that that is not the point. I was making 90% on my investment in a day !! So I booked. Part.

    *****************************************

    2. Re: Hero Motors:
    I got Jai’s message to exit Hero Motors short position. By the time I went to cover it, the price had gone up. Nevertheless I bought back and covered all of my shorts. Remembering that I was making money on the trade. Less than what I would have made but it was still money in the bank. And good money at that.

    I took a further risk and bought Hero Motors futures (on my own calculation). I bought half the quantity that I was trading the shorts in. Remember Jai said that Hero Motors could go upto 1890-1910 and that that would be a good place to re-enter short positions.

    Now that is probably a sure trade – going short at 1890-1910 is a low risk trade.

    It may go to 1890-1910. But it may not.

    That is a chance I was taking. At the end of the day I sold 85% of the quantity I had bought – at a handsome profit. Now the 15% I could afford to wait.

    I will of course re-enter shorts when Jai gives the call.

    *****************************************

    The salient points I want to make here are:

    1. It is not possible to get the absolute top and bottom rates at all times.
    2.Take whatever money you are making and be happy. It is money in the bank rather than on paper.
    Otherwise no matter how much money you make you will never be happy.
    3. If you are happy so are the people around you. Friends, Family, etc…
    4. By exiting the trade you are free to think about other trades.

    I hope this has been of some help.

    Cheers.

    • i dont think there is no need to share these type of thought on this page

    • Agile Trader,

      Keep sharing your thoughts. They are lot useful. The other time I was trying to pull your leg and it was pure David Letterman stuff. Your trade of L&T on Jai’s call is terrific. Jai bala said that call is for high risk traders and I passed it but how you traded his call is just out of the box.

      Jai Bala is something else. Is not it. I am seriously thinking of kidnapping him. It will be lot easier if you help me. No subscription fees. He will get Hyderabad Biryani every day. Think about it.
      😉

      -Kishan

    • Who raised the question I am new here say 1 month old but I am glad to be here with jail’ s recommendations of premium content whoever raised the question doesnt really fitting here

    • Good points agiletrader. Good luck to you buddy.

  5. Dear Agiletrader,

    Its a pleasure to see you take pains in explaining how to trade based on the calls given. I am sure this has come about in two parts, one out of long standing experience in markets and ability to intrepret his calls. Second and most importantly, probably, your devotion to this gentleman. I have a feeling that you arent going to be alone shortly. 🙂 Happy to see this your cherish your assosciation with Jai.

    In the backdrop that most of the group will reach this comfort level in intrepreting Jai eventually, while in the short run they are getting used to how Jai narrates his advice, i would suggest that when Jai gives it, he could be more explicit. This can leave no ambiguity at all.

    For ex:- a simple Table could be made and updated.

    Date Call Type Trigger Price Stop Loss Target 1 Target2 Remarks
    (Long/SHort)

    I think something like this will give a running history and digital clarity for what folks need to do. For those who are late in the trade too, they can take individual call on the margin of the safety left in the trade.

    Hope this helps… Once again Jai, you are doing a splendid job. WE are all glad fans..

    Regards

    Jay Z

  6. Jai,

    One more thing. The live calls alone may be posted on daily blog, and as calls are closed and become historical, there can be a link where folks and visit and go through.

    Hope it helps.

    Regards

    Srikanth

  7. Dear Jai

    As per the supports mentioned by you yesterday, i bought Nifty @ 4640 and exited it @ 4720.. I have closed two positions, while one lot is still open. Any levels where i should get out…i was looking @ 4750-4760 levels.

  8. Jai

    Hero Motocorp trading at 1893…. Can we have a trade when it reaches 1910 kinda levels….

  9. Hey Jai, does the call on mkts remain the same? Thx

  10. Hi Jai,
    Do u see more downside and if yes by when do u see market bottoming out?

    Regards
    Parag

  11. Jai

    Missing the regular market updates .. it had become such a habit to check the website first thing in the morning to get an insight into the market…

    prateek

  12. Hi Jai,

    Its been more than 10 days of absolutely no activity. How long is this likely to continue? Thx

  13. Hi Jai,

    Hope you are enjoying the new year and the holidays. Will it be possible to post a short note on the nifty and market on whole to the members. This will help us to navigate the market till your return for regular post.

    Ajay

  14. no updates for a long time?

  15. Hi,
    All those who have not read their email – I’m on vacation till the 14th of January. I will also be extending your subscription by 3 weeks.

    Best regards,
    Jai

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