Nifty(4763): In our last update we had expected Nifty to get a temporary reprieve from 4690-4720 zone and markets saw a temporary reprieve from 4728. It is likely that the this relief is over. Remember the 2 days Nifty hit 4640? Nifty bounced back and closed above 4700 levels. The lowest closing was 4706. Now, 4706 will act as a bull-bear divide line. Bears need to cross this line to signal that a new low is coming. As mentioned last week, new low on or before 21st Dec seems very likely.
The forces of deflation is taking control of the global markets, and it will spare no asset class. This is exactly why we are short on Gold and Silver. Even crude is a short but we will look for a low risk entry.
New open position:
Long Nifty Dec 4500 Put at 20-21, price objective 80-100.
Note: On CNBC today at 8:40 IST
11 Responses to “Technicals Dec 15th 2011”
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Dear Jai
Any stocks which we can short in the cement sector…
Youve got a good feel of the markets without looking at charts (i assume). Cements will crack too. The big move will be lead by Cements, Auto’s and banks. Ambuja price objective 120, ACC 900 but there are no low risk set up. Waiting for one. Grasim would have turned for the longer term if it breaks 2200
No sir
I actually study the charts but i dont use elliot waves.. i use the concept of supply and demand on the charts wherever supply exceeds demand, i short and vice versa and have had good results but i am not able to get the targets from this method plus my experience in the market is a pittiance as compared to you.. i therefore look at you for guidance and support…
Nice call on 4500 PE. And nice closure by selling half positions. Thanks so much!
Are you expecting a policy change from RBI tomorrow?
Doesnt matter Vivek. Even if they did, it will just be a knee-jerk reaction. Deflation moving to next stage – will take care of everything including precious metals.
Are you expecting a positive reaction in the markets tomorrow if RBI holds or cuts rates?
If it does it will be temporary, max 1 session.
Hi Jai,
As 4500 seems closer than ever, are you looking at a rebound from there and upto what levels. If there is going to be rebound, could you pls identify what may be good trades, levels for entry and exit so that we can be better prepared.
Like in earlier times, a graphical rep of the potential path and time frames will help the perspective.
I must compliment that you are doing a great job and we are glad to have your support.
Regards
Jayaram
Jai,
One another thing, any trade on the rupee bit too.. pls lets know.
Regards
Jayaram
Sir
Any Views on Tata Power.. The stock has filled the gap which existed on the chart and and is testing its support…. Do you think we can short that stock if it rises to 91 with a sl of 95 and a target of 64..
Tata Power was not expected to go below 84. As long as it stays above 84 there are some bullish potential for the short to medium term. But given larger backdrop, I do not know how it will work out. 85-140 broad range.