Nifty(4832): The day was ranged between important supports of 4725 and resistance of 4866 though an erratic and volatile day with a mildly positive finish. Now given the global euphoria about cheaper dollar swap lines, Nifty is very likely to take the double three corrective outlined here in yesterday's technicals.
Nifty - intraday charts
The resistance at 4980 is going to become important today, and if by some chance markets exceed 5000, It would do a world of good from a contrarian point of view- weak bears would fold, fundamental traders would think the low at 4640 was THE LOW and world would become a better a place because the central bankers "solved" the problem of insolvency with cheap credit!!!!
The level of 5065 is the level of a previous fourth (red horizontal line on chart), most corrections end around the previous fourth or slightly below. The volume footprint has left 5015 and 5040 as important levels for market activity. So be aware that the zone of 5015-5065 is a big resistance cluster. So those of you who have been saying you are high risk traders in the comment section, this is the zone you need to step up and stand in front of the market.
Open positions:
Same as yesterday. Hero Honda if it comes to 2130 (unlikely) do not close, the stop is likely to get revised to 2195 and we may stay on for the bigger trade to 1750-1400.
47 Responses to “Technicals December 1st 2011”
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May be I should stop trading and apply for Reserve bank governor post. 🙂
Jai Bala, is there any possibility of a triangle formation?
-Kishan
Triangle in? Wave 4?
Unusual exuberance of free fall and gap up openings (vice versa) forms a triangle. I am talking about entire 4th wave (starting from 5400) is a triangle. (please bare with my knowledge:) )
actually I am trading your preferred path on nifty charts made good money. specially the 4th wave (a-b-c X a-b-c)
-Kishan
Yes triangle is another possibility. From 5400 to 4640 has all characteristics of impulse
sir are you expecting 1750-1400 on hh in december series bcoz i have shorted hh december futures at 2072 4 days back
Time is the most difficult component of analysis, Gunjan. Either by December 8th or by next expiry, you can always roll fwd futures.
ok sir thank you for the reply,
one crazy question. for how many times the futures can be rolled forward., for 3 months or beyond seriously i did not know abt forwarding the futures as i mainly traded in equity buy and sell and at the most intraday and options this is the first time i am trading in futures.
As long as you want 🙂
thank you
awesome
Hi Jai,
In your earlier posts, you had mentioned that you are expecting a big low in Nifty around Dec 8th. Can you confirm what levels you are expecting?
Dear Desikan,
Dec 8th according my time series analysis points to an important low or a high. The chance of market rallying to make an important high on Dec 8th seems very very low. Since we have only 3 negative December since 1992, I’m anticipating a low and a rally post Dec 8th. 4530 is the big support for me and I’m assuming that is on cards.
Best regards,
Jai
hai…
yes jai is correct But the big ball is on 9th friday not on Dec 8th ..this double confirmation since astrology also say these.”Bear Day .All sectors will decline”but not on Dec 8th on “Bull Trend ,Dual trend in all sectors”
jai
any views on your earlier call of shorting L T ?
regards
Looking to short. U read my mind? 🙂
Jai, I joined today only, shall I short heromotors at this price of 2070
Sure
Hi Jai
Is it advisable to short Rupee now. Thanks
It will not go below 50.35 INR spot, that seems clear. Not clear if the correction is complete. You might want to stagger those short positions if u trade multiple contracts. If not wait for a little more correction
Dear Jai,
As you know i am a new member, could I buy Apollo at 66.9 as target of 71 is yet to achieve
and what should be the stop loss
ajay
Normally if you would have invested Rs 50k per stock, make it 30k now.
hi jai,
if i want to park my money for 1 or 2 year then in which script i have to do it.
please suggest me 4-5 stock for long term investment .
regards,
shailendra
Hi Shailendra,
I think that time is quite far away.
Jai,
I know a few persons have asked about HH. Just a small observation, yesterday the volumes in HH was north of 1.7 million in NSE. However, today is less than 0.3mn till now.
I would believe this is a sign of lack of buying. Your thoughts ?
Regards
MSCI weightage for HH went down by 75bps. So the big sell off yday. Watchout there is too much froth on Auto’s, so this has to come down
Citi is going to come out with a downgrade on Auto today.
Regards
U think it would matter? Do you know the number of buys on RIL and LT from Institutional desk. 34 buys 0 sells, and 31 buys and 3 sells 😀
Most of these guys are behind the curve. A few citi guys are my ex-colleagues
Is the institutional data in the public domain. If yes how to get it pl?
The reports are not public but you can see how many buys and sells for a stock on Rueters site. That is my contrarian indicator.
That too……maybe just hoping that it works when you want them to. 🙂
just fyi. Citi has put out a sell on HH and target of 1650. BTW…this is a big forum and I just want to let people know that i understand nothing of stocks and SURELY am not good at it. Just relaying what I read.
Cheers….
As long as it works, its fine 🙂 If it helps us, most welcome
hi,
What’s your view on Idea cellular.. What could be the targets on either side according to you.
Thanks in advance.
Regards
Srikanth
V careful if u are long. Momentum here is unsupportive of the rise. Can turn down.
What are the intraday levels for Nifty?
If we have short positons in Nifty futures, should we carry forward those positions?
Defintely. Knowing you, you would be holding multiple contracts – take some profits.
Have learned a lot from you over a period of time. As you say it is always good to book profits from time to time. They may seem small at the time but it all adds up.
So yes I was holding multiple contracts and I had booked profits on the way 🙂
but was holding a small open position and wanted your expert opinion on it.
Was looking at it from the short term trading perspective only (one or two days max). For a longer hold (week or so) have got puts and will add as and when you advise – directly or indirectly.
Directly meaning your calls and indirectly meaning from what is implied in your posts 😛
Thanks as always.
Cheers.
Jai,
Do you have any views on airtel.
Regards,
Srinath
It is very close to turning for the long term. A daily close below 355 would mean a drop to atleast 305 is coming
Jai,
Any comments abt nifty, will it retest 5011
Ajay
hi jai,
what is your guidance for todays trade.
regards
Hi jai,
I have just shorted the nifty at 5035. I want to keep a really tight stop loss, what would u suggest ?
Also, now that Infy has gone past 2675, any ideas ?
Regards
Anyway it would not work for Monday, since there is no ‘Good till canceled’ order type. You need keep a fresh one on Monday.
Ok…will look for your stops for Nifty on Monday. Also for Infy too.
Regards
Given the level at which Nifty has closed today,do you think the reversal is very much on the cards soon.
hi jai
your call on buy OFSS @ 2037 in cash, i had checked for futures rate there was a big gap @ 2070, i was told that the counter doesn’t have much liquidity, in this scenario can you please advice what should be done for futures trade, or the only option is cash, one more thing since in your previous few post you have mentioned about 8th dec correction in market, won’t that affect negatively our long positions in apollo as well as ofss?,
i have shorted one lot LT @ 1296.00 what should be the stop loss and can i add to the position, at what levels
regards
Hi Shabbir,
The call on OFSS was clearly on cash. CNXIT has one more leg up pending before rolling over. LT 1360 good stop.
Best regards,
Jai