Nov 212011

Nifty(4905): So far the short covering seems less apparent but as long as Nifty stays above 4830, we must assume the relief rally is in play (wave red 4)

In the event that 4830 is broken, there is a minor support at 4803 and only 4730 below that. The odds that it will sink straight there looks less likely. But extensions are difficult to pin down. On the higher side, the big resistance is at 5015. If Nifty does manage to go above that in the next few days, 5140 will put a cap on this rally and will present a low risk selling opportunity.

If anything calls for your attention, will alert by sms.

 Posted by at 3:21 am

  17 Responses to “Technicals 21st Nov 2011”

  1. Hi Jai, Do you advise us to short gold at current levels (1723? Appreciate your response

    • Gold has not been doing what it should be doing, on my terms atleast. So keep it small (mini contracts) or avoid.

  2. Jai,

    Is Silver a better bet for shorting? (Instead for Gold. For now).


    • Also, your call on USDINR is still open, right? Have booked part profits when you said. What levels are we looking at now? I know you have been saying 52 and then 57 but if there is an oppurtunity to sell part and re-enter, please do let us know.

      Thanks. 🙂

      • Yes looks it will test all time low (or slightly exceed) and then pullback. 50 might become a floor. 57 next year

    • Yes silver has been a consistent underperformer. We have tightened the stop to breakeven. Can take profits today and then hold

  3. Jai,

    Unfortunately, all the short positions that we were in have been squared off anticipating a bounce. Any recent calls ?


  4. Dear jai,

    Whats ur take on Nifty now?
    Are we headed to 4700 on expiry…is the chance of a bounce back over?


  5. hi jai,
    last time when nifty went this low i think rupee was around 45/46 level, today it is around 52 level does this change the equation in any way. like the bounce up from this level goes much higher on back of FII buying, or it sinks much below the support levels on sustained selling fearing rupee to go much lower, your comments please

    • Sharp observation 🙂 The medium term technical structure is one that calls for a bigger decline. May be the Rupee weakness will increase the pain quotient for FII’s. Since the fall has been relentless, the energy to go much farther after the break of 4720 is less. (Do not know if there is strength to break 4720 first) But there are is atleast one more leg of decline after the current drop halts.


  6. hi jai

    most of the trades we have done have been akin to firing from water pistols

    • 🙂 I totally agree. Either we have been hitting stop losses on winning trades or just sitting on the side.

    • Agree with your observation. But the ‘water pistol’ has had some good hits so far. I’d prefer it any day to being hit with a stoploss in a super-volatile market

  7. Hi Jai,

    I think that there is an alternate wave count going on. the intensity of the fall is suggesting to me that we are in powerful Wave 3 which is not complete. ??


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