Nov 142011
 

Nifty(5168.85): The shortened week for Indian markets brought the second successive week of negative close for the Nifty. A small gap was registered in last week's price action and an ability to fill this zone of 5200-5211 today will mean a strong downtrend is in place.

Nifty intraday charts

Considering the weekend movements in western bourses this seems less likely. If our labeling of the short-term moves are correct, Nifty cannot exceed 5256. (Nifty is unlikely to overlap into the teal dotted line shown on chart which passes at 5256 as this would violate Elliott wave rules). Also, the 61.8%  Fibonacci retracement level of blue iii (5317 to 5142) falls at 5250. Hence if we see Nifty hover slightly below 5250, it will be a  very low risk selling opportunity. Hence sell with a 5 point stop above 5256 cash nifty level. However, if Nifty pauses much lower, we have to evaluate the intraday movements and then act. If this push stretches all the way to 5250, the minimum drop in blue wave v will definitely be 5179 if not 5138 or 5065.

Petronet:

Petronet - Daily Charts

 Posted by at 2:36 am

  15 Responses to “Technicals 14th Nov 2011”

  1. Hi Jai,

    Thanks. If NIFTY does manage to cross 5256, then what are the alternate scenarios?

    Thanks,
    Vivek

  2. Hi Jai,

    I was actually expecting a very strong sell call from you considering the 5170 breach by the Nifty. I remember u mentioning that this would make the bullish case very difficult.

    Regards

    • For people who assumed the August low of 4720 was THE low, this negates the bullish case. An overlap into 5170 makes the rise from 4720 an ABC corrective not a new uptrend.

  3. Hi Jai
    What s your view on Rupee. Do you think it can hold 50 for some time?

    • There is no sign that Rupee has reversed the weakening trend. Expecting 57 in the medium to long term. If things change in the short-term will alert you.

      Best,
      Jai

  4. We have stopped more than we have walked and laughed on this journey for a start. Hoping to walk before I begin to limp…. 🙂 Warm regards, J.

    • True, as rocky balboa would say- it aint about how hard u can hit…its abt how hard u can get hit and keep moving…that’s how winning is done….

      • Jai,

        This was in Rocky 1 or Rocky 5 ? In Rocky 1 at least he was taking the punches. In Rocky 5 he was the coach and someone else was taking the punches….I would be worried if he said that in Rocky 5 🙂

        Regards

  5. Hi Jai,

    I had hedged my short Petronet with a 170 call. Should i close my short or hold on to it as i have a put to cover my losses….If the bearish case has been avoided for the short term then should i close the short and hold on to my call to take some profits..

  6. The recent high is 176, hold on to it till that crossed

    • Hi Jai,

      I actually did not close the Petronet short (in fact I shorted another lot at 171.90). Since we are back in the price territory – are you expecting this his 162? The chart above suggests 152 is a better target?

      Thanks,
      Vivek

      P.S. I trade Petronet quite a lot (been trading for 1.5 years off an on) and was a little more comfy holding the short…

      • I pull swing trades in the direction of bigger trend. 152 could take a few more sessions

        • Thanks. Don’t mind holding at all 🙂 Will probably book 1 lot and put a stop at cost for second once it goes below 167.

Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.