Nifty(5221.05): The single most important thing we are going to watch today is if Reliance can close below 855. If it does, the chances of Reliance dropping to 760's if not a new low under 700 would gain strong currency. It was already pointed out a couple of days back how Nifty seems to have moved with Reliance in a lock-step fashion. So that would in effect negate the bullish prospects and cement the bearish case.
Nifty intraday
On Nifty, even an intraday touch of 5035 will eliminate the bullish case. If Reliance does close below that 855 level this is probably going to be a matter of time. Watch for supports today at 5140-65. If we see a gap down nearer to this level be careful opening fresh shorts here.
As was pointed out in the technicals big picture, the INR was never in a favourable position for the bullish case. The Indian currency is very close to the 52 week low it made in October. A new low here would also add weight to the bearish case.
Meanwhile in Europe - remember we had pointed to the 2 decades wide spread for the French-German 1o year bonds? And said market was expecting an event? Now, S&P has eliminated the downgrade of France temporarily. BUT The spreads are now even wider after S&P reiterated the AAA on France. So wait for some other event.
French-German Spreads
And watch out for headlines : Spain will soon be hitting the wires. Although the debt here is not as bad as Italy, borrowing costs are going to make things bad for Spain.
Spanish-German Spreads breakout
13 Responses to “Short term technicals – 11-11-11”
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hi jai
5035 on nifty is still way below, or did you mean 5135 on intraday today, or 5035 in couple of days?
regards
Not today Shabbir, Over the next few days but 5035 is correct. Likewise 855 close on Reliance need not be today either. If it comes next week too it is acceptable.
sir any views on united spirit as it has come down today
Look at Infy open…
jai
right on cue reliance has touched 851.00, today itself
regards
Jai
What s your view on gold? Yesterday it touched 1736 before bouncing back to 1765 levels. Do you think it can revisit 1730 levels. Regards
I think it will not cross 1805. On a larger time frame it is very likely to head down – unless ECB decides to print (which they cannot according to Lisbon treaty)
Best,
Jai
Jai,
How do you read this bounce back fro sub 851 for Reliance ? Bullish for the stock or otherwise. I am running a short on Reliance
Regards Rut
Amrish,
The fact that it went below 855 is a good sign for the bearish case but need a close below that level to be convinced. Just an intraday short covering nothing else to read into – wait for the close
Best regards,
Jai
Jai
Italian bond yields are lower today. T
Jai
The italian bond yields have retreated to below 7 levels (6.6%) as we speak on reports of ECB buying… I know this is not permanent solution, my only fear is that we might get caught on the right side but at the wrong time….Reliance just shot off from 850 and did not stop rising till the days end… Dollar also touched its 2.5 year high and then retreated a bit from there.
So there might be some steam left in the market to atleast hold on to the 5130-5140 level atleast till the month of November and frustrate the bears.
Another point to be noted is the appointment of Mario Monty as a senator for life and if rumours are to believed there is a good chance that Berlusconi willl resign and Mario Monty will take over as the new premier of Italy… All these might give a last leg to the rally
awaiting your views on that
hi jai
lots of attention has been paid to international data, as indian markets go up and down by FII investment sentiment, but what about local data like indian gov bond prices rising or RBI had to cancel bond auction on friday as there were not enough bids at offered rates, or IIP data coming low, auto sales registering fall, does this not effect the FII and local investment sentiment. can u just touch base on this points
regards