Nov 082011
 

Nifty(5284.20): On friday, we saw some supply around 5325, which was one of the projected resistance. As can be seen from the chart below either this has completed the pullback we were looking for or there is one last push that takes Nifty to somewhere between 5334-5356.

Nifty intraday chart

A drop below Friday's low would be an opportunity to short but this is a very aggressive trade.Do not risk more than 35 points on Nifty. (If this happens in the first 5mins avoid). The important short-term supports are at 5190 and 5165

We saw some weakness come through for Reliance on Friday. Weakness here is going to be very critical for the bearish case. If we project the first leg of the decline of Nifty from the November highs to November lows to the January high's the low of 4720 on Nifty is just a few points over 225%. At the August low, it is exactly the same for Reliance, just a few points over 225% projection. Though, ONGC and BHEL were the first to top out in October,  it was felt that banks were the main drags since last year, Nifty seems to have moved in lock-step with Reliance!! A sustained move below 872, the low of Friday would help the bearish case and a close below 855 would probably seal the bearish case.

In the global markets, there is a broad divergence between the bond markets and the equity markets. When they diverge, trust the bond markets. You see the headlines are moving from Greece to Italy. Next it would be Spain and later on France. Remember, the bond yield spreads for France are the same level it was just before Britain went crashing out of the ERM in 1992.

Italian-German Bond yield spreads at a EURO ERA HIGH

Also, over the last few weeks Silver has been under-performing Gold by a margin. When speculative energy or the risk taking appetite is back, you will see Silver out-perform Gold. So there are enough warning signs out there. Stay safe.

 Posted by at 2:42 am

  7 Responses to “India pre-market November 8th 2011”

  1. Dear jai,
    Do we hold the silver short? With a stop of 58000? In mcx?

    Regards,
    Rahul T

    • I do not have a live track of MCX Silver but it is $35.7 on Globex. If 58000 is the 28th October high, yes u should place a stop above that.
      Regards,
      Jai

  2. ‘If we project the first leg of the decline of Nifty from the November highs to November lows to the January high’s the low of 4720 on Nifty is just a few points over 225%.’

    Jai i could not understand what you meant by this..

    • The first leg of this bear market was from Nov beginning to Nov end. Basically, the move to the August low is a Fibonacci relationship. I have summed it up – basically Reliance movement has been a very important part. Do not have to get technical.

      Hope that is clear.
      Best regards,
      Jai

  3. Hi Jai,

    Just want to confirm whether any calls on specific stocks given today since I did not get any sms.

    Regards

    • Dear Desikan,

      The bulkssms services have been erratic -delivering to most networks but not delivering to a few despite +ve confirmation from gateway. So we have moved to direct sms’s from a mobile. So there will not be any blocks. If you received no sms’s then it means none has been sent.

      Hope that helps.
      Best,
      Jai

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