Happy Deepavali. May the inner light glow bright and show you the way.
The regulars of this blog would recall my August post on the USDINR cross rates. Within that larger picture, the short-term is moving to the next stage.
A narrow consolidation after a powerful move and a wide range bar. The next stage of Rupee weakness is here.
Inter-market analysis provides an extra dimension to technical analysis - the peripheral vision and the backdrop in which we are operating. Here is one such inter-market factor. To me this is pretty much like looking at the charts of the Baltic Dry Index.
Over the last few weeks if you have been left wondering if the markets around the world have turned a corner, you might want to have look at the following pictures.
Please click on these pictures and have a larger view. As you might understand from the caption, these are cargo vessels that have been standing idle for months together here in Singapore and some might be more than a year. The number of vessels over the last few months have only increased albeit at an alarming pace. Talk to anyone in the shipping business they would tell you what these pictures are telling. I personally know someone who owned a ship and went bankrupt - their next generation is still trying to pay off the debts and in all likely-hood, that person is unlikely to pay off the debt until their retirement age. The same would be true of corporations. In short, this is not a cheerful sign.
Singapore backlog - a small video clipping of the ECP coast (singapore).
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Just a quick chart check.
If the sub-divisions marked are correct, we should see 4750-20 get breached soon, may be as early as this week. For medium to long-term please check the September and August post.