Nov 152010

In June, I had posted a note on this indicator and wanted us all to keep an eye on it. However, the indicator averted a double top risk and stayed above the previous trough during the May-June correction. Once again its time to keep an eye here. If this indicator dips below the orange line, it would be first warning sign that the existing uptrend is starting to turn weak. Although the possibility of a trend reversal exits only below the red line. I will post an update on this indicator if the indicator dips below either of these two levels.

Indian economy barometer

However, this time around there are couple of things that are loaded in favour of the bearish camp. One, Reliance is an under performer unlike the previous time. Two, SBI, a key leader in this rally, has also started to show pronounced weakness. Thirdly, there is a pronounced negative divergence on Nifty/Sensex daily charts.

What's favouring the bulls? The longer term momentum has matched with the price peaks and one possible wave count points to another leg up (need not result in a  high though).

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