Jul 152010

Here is a chart of Indian Nifty in Dollar adjusted value.

Nifty daily chart - Dollar adjusted value

As is obvious from the above chart, Nifty has not even crossed the June highs, leave alone the April highs. And this could be the completion of a right shoulder in a head and shoulder top. While Nifty could very well continue to push higher and cross the highs of April in dollar terms- but other technical evidences at the moment do not favour that scenario. I guess by the time I post my next update from Singapore, markets should  have more evidence of which way they are headed.

Good trading to all!

Jul 112010

Hi everyone, I've been erratic with my posts and that will continue to be the case all through July. I'm relocating out of UK and my time and energy is focused on the relocation. Hopefully, by 1st of August Ill be all set in Singapore and updates on this blog should get regular.

Will keep updates coming as and when time permits until then.

Good trading to you all.

 Posted by at 10:44 pm
Jul 052010

For the first time since 2009 cracks have started to appear amongst India's banking stocks. ICICI bank is showing considerable weakness and a close below 815 may weigh heavily on the banking index. HDFC bank is showing potential for a double top - of course this is not fatalistic but a close above 2025 will neutralise the negatives. A prudent investor/trader must watch the Bankex Index for clues to how the Indian markets are going to resolve.

BSE Bankex Line chart - Source Bloomberg

A close below 10100 for the Bankex would be a warning sign for further weakness in Banks and as a consequence for the broader indices - Nifty and Sensex.